CAJ | 학술논문

根据1978-2009年的数据,通过协整检验说明农业GDP与金融机构农业信贷投入存在长期均衡关系,并建立向量自回归模型来考察两者之间的动态影响关系。研究表明,从短期来看,农业GDP的增长来自于两方面,一方面是短期农业信贷投入的影响,另一方面来自误差修正项对短期均衡偏离长期均衡的一种调整。从长期来看,农业GDP和农业信贷投入之间存在稳定的长期相互影响的过程。农业GDP对农业信贷投入扰动的响应小于农业信贷对农业GDP扰动的响应,因此,必须加强政府干预,加大金融支持。
근거1978-2009년적수거,통과협정검험설명농업GDP여금융궤구농업신대투입존재장기균형관계,병건립향량자회귀모형래고찰량자지간적동태영향관계。연구표명,종단기래간,농업GDP적증장래자우량방면,일방면시단기농업신대투입적영향,령일방면래자오차수정항대단기균형편리장기균형적일충조정。종장기래간,농업GDP화농업신대투입지간존재은정적장기상호영향적과정。농업GDP대농업신대투입우동적향응소우농업신대대농업GDP우동적향응,인차,필수가강정부간예,가대금융지지。
According to the data from1978 to 2009,Agriculture GDP has a Long-run equilibrium relationship with the agricultural loans by cointegration test,then,We buid a VAR modle to research their dynamic relationship.The results show that.in the short term,the agricultural growth has two reasons：one is Short-term investment in agricultural credit,the other is the adjustmen from Error correction of short-term deviation to the long-run equilibrium of a balance,in the long term,Investment in agricultural GDP and agricultural credit has a long-term stability but GDP of agriculture inputs to the greater impact of agricultural credit,so,if you want to develop agriculture better,you must have a stronger government＇s intervention and have more financial support.