人口与发展
人口與髮展
인구여발전
Market & Demographic Analysis
2011年
2期
2~13
,共null页
曹桂英 郑晓瑛 Joanna Horabik Sten Nilsson 徐晋涛 王海东 王灏晨
曹桂英 鄭曉瑛 Joanna Horabik Sten Nilsson 徐晉濤 王海東 王灝晨
조계영 정효영 Joanna Horabik Sten Nilsson 서진도 왕해동 왕호신
纸制品 消费 城市化
紙製品 消費 城市化
지제품 소비 성시화
paper; consumption ; urbanization
基于对近期未来的人口—经济增长的预测,分析了城市化增长对未来纸制品消费的影响。用＂自相关误差回归＂的方法检验人口和城市化增长的不同发展路径对于纸制品消费的影响。中国的城市化过程对纸制品消费影响很大,更快的城市化进程,相应的影响会更强烈。比较人口变量和经济变量,城市家庭经济因素相对更加明显。在近期的未来,随着纸制品消费的增加,其对环境污染的压力也会增大。
基于對近期未來的人口—經濟增長的預測,分析瞭城市化增長對未來紙製品消費的影響。用＂自相關誤差迴歸＂的方法檢驗人口和城市化增長的不同髮展路徑對于紙製品消費的影響。中國的城市化過程對紙製品消費影響很大,更快的城市化進程,相應的影響會更彊烈。比較人口變量和經濟變量,城市傢庭經濟因素相對更加明顯。在近期的未來,隨著紙製品消費的增加,其對環境汙染的壓力也會增大。
기우대근기미래적인구—경제증장적예측,분석료성시화증장대미래지제품소비적영향。용＂자상관오차회귀＂적방법검험인구화성시화증장적불동발전로경대우지제품소비적영향。중국적성시화과정대지제품소비영향흔대,경쾌적성시화진정,상응적영향회경강렬。비교인구변량화경제변량,성시가정경제인소상대경가명현。재근기적미래,수착지제품소비적증가,기대배경오염적압력야회증대。
This paper analyzes the impact of urban growth on future paper consumption based on the medium term demographic -economic scenarios. The method of ＂regression with authocor- related errors＂ is used to examine implications of alternative development paths of urban growth on paper consumption. The simulation results confirm a hypothesis that the urbanization process in China strongly affects paper consumption. Since more rapid urbanization process is possible, it would have correspondingly larger effects. Comparing demographic variables with economic variables, the effect of urban household economic factors is relatively more pronounced. Accord- ing to the simulation results, we expect that pressure in association with the paper consumption growth in for environmental aggravation will increase the medium term future.
