CAJ | 학술논문

引入养老保险制度后居民储蓄会受到怎样的影响,这是公共经济领域的一项重要研究内容。通过使用2001-2008年的省际面板数据,两步系统GMM估计方法的实证研究表明,现阶段影响我国居民储蓄率最主要的因素是家庭储蓄行为的惯性力量,而与之相比,养老保险及人口结构因素在影响家庭储蓄率方面的作用比较有限。因此,面对我国当前资本积累过度的现实情况,主张通过建立现收现付养老保险制度来减少储蓄规模的观点是值得商榷的。
인입양로보험제도후거민저축회수도즘양적영향,저시공공경제영역적일항중요연구내용。통과사용2001-2008년적성제면판수거,량보계통GMM고계방법적실증연구표명,현계단영향아국거민저축솔최주요적인소시가정저축행위적관성역량,이여지상비,양로보험급인구결구인소재영향가정저축솔방면적작용비교유한。인차,면대아국당전자본적루과도적현실정황,주장통과건립현수현부양로보험제도래감소저축규모적관점시치득상각적。
The impact of social security on household saving rate is an important area of research in public economy.B ased on China＇s panel data at the provincial level between 2001 and 2008,and through the two-step system of GMM method,this empirical study yields results indicating that the most important factor affecting China＇s household saving rate is the inerti a of Chinese household saving habit,and that,compared with this habit,social security and demographic structure have a relatively limited and insignificant impact on household savings rate.It is therefore suggested that the popular opinion of reducing s avings by implementing PAYG system may prove problematic if we take China＇s current problem of over-accumulation of capital into consideration.