CAJ | 학술논문

西方＂印度因人口红利将超越中国＂说,无限夸大老龄化问题,将发展中国家人口问题最终变成了＂人口红利＂。文章评论这一思潮依据的若干西方研究,分析得出中国经济增长27%由人口红利贡献的国内研究存在严重瑕疵。分析指出,因＂未富先老＂中国老龄化效应必远弱于西方。迄今西方老龄化与增生失业而非劳动力短缺相伴随,这是经济转型期我国应真正引起高度关注的问题。文章认为从多方面看,随经济规模扩大,我国人口问题滞后效应明显进入充分展现期,人口政策如转向鼓励增加人口,将会是一次重大失误。
서방＂인도인인구홍리장초월중국＂설,무한과대노령화문제,장발전중국가인구문제최종변성료＂인구홍리＂。문장평론저일사조의거적약간서방연구,분석득출중국경제증장27%유인구홍리공헌적국내연구존재엄중하자。분석지출,인＂미부선로＂중국노령화효응필원약우서방。흘금서방노령화여증생실업이비노동력단결상반수,저시경제전형기아국응진정인기고도관주적문제。문장인위종다방면간,수경제규모확대,아국인구문제체후효응명현진입충분전현기,인구정책여전향고려증가인구,장회시일차중대실오。
By saying that ＂India will surpass China in demographic dividend,＂ the Western thought has turned population problems of developing countries to ＂demographic dividend. ＂ This paper briefly reviews some Western studies that leads to the Western thought on the relationship be- tween population and economy. It concludes that similar studies by Chinese scholars, which reach a conclusion that demographic dividend contributed 27% China＇ s economic growth, have serious flaws. While ＂getting old before getting rich＂ may be one of the characteristics of population aging in China, many unique factors make the aging effects in China much weaker than that in the West. Aging in the West has been so far accompanied by increasing unemployment problem, and whether transitional China with 200 million surplus labors will face similar problem should have caught more attention. Currently, the lagged effects of population growth of Chino have entered its fully demon- strated period. If China＇ s population policy changes to encourage population growth, it will be a big mistake.