CAJ | 학술논문

货币供应量作为我国的货币政策中介目标存在很多争议,但是现阶段依然具有不可替代的作用,在重视货币总量的同时,应分析货币结构的变化,实现对货币供应量中介目标的改良是一个现实选择。本文通过对2001年1月—2010年12月的宏观月度数据的研究,发现货币增速剪刀差与CPI之间存在着显著的正相关关系。在样本期内,货币增速剪刀差与通货膨胀之间互为格兰杰因果关系,货币增速剪刀差的变化体现为4期之后的CPI变化,当期货币增速剪刀差每增加一个单位则4个月之后的CPI上升0.049个单位。央行应将货币结构尤其是货币增速剪刀差作为货币供应量数量指标的补充,同时考虑对货币结构进行调控,以增强货币政策效用。
화폐공응량작위아국적화폐정책중개목표존재흔다쟁의,단시현계단의연구유불가체대적작용,재중시화폐총량적동시,응분석화폐결구적변화,실현대화폐공응량중개목표적개량시일개현실선택。본문통과대2001년1월—2010년12월적굉관월도수거적연구,발현화폐증속전도차여CPI지간존재착현저적정상관관계。재양본기내,화폐증속전도차여통화팽창지간호위격란걸인과관계,화폐증속전도차적변화체현위4기지후적CPI변화,당기화폐증속전도차매증가일개단위칙4개월지후적CPI상승0.049개단위。앙행응장화폐결구우기시화폐증속전도차작위화폐공응량수량지표적보충,동시고필대화폐결구진행조공,이증강화폐정책효용。
Applying money supply as the intermediate target for monetary policy in China is controversial, but at present money supply still plays an irreplaceable role. Therefore, while valuing the currency amount, we should also analyze the changes in the currency structure, and improve money supply as an intermediate target for monetary policy. After studying the monthly macro statistics from January 2001 to December 2010, it is founded that scissors gap of money supply growth has a significant and positive correlation with CPL In the sample period, scissors gap of money supply growth and inflation stand the Granger causality test. The CPI changes 4 periods after the changes of scissors gap of money supply growth, namely, when scissors gap of money supply growth increases by one unit, the CPI of four months will increase by 0. 049 units later. Consequently, the Central Bank should take scissors gap of money supply growth as the complementary intermediate target of money supply. Meanwhile, regulating and control over currency structure should be considered in order to intensify the effect of the monetary policy.