CAJ | 학술논문

中国改革进程表现出强烈的拖延一危机冲击一突破的特征。文章通过将改革拖延和危机冲击对改革的影响这两个相互关联的问题纳入统一的分析框架。试图为理解中国经济转型过程中的改革“拖延与突破”现象提供理论分析基础。结论表明：随着既得利益集团数目的增加，权力结构失衡导致改革推进越来越困难；成本分担问题是影响改革能否推进的主要因素；危机，中击通过影响改革相关方的成本分布推动改革突破；如果危机推动了改革突破，危机有利于社会总福利增加。
중국개혁진정표현출강렬적타연일위궤충격일돌파적특정。문장통과장개혁타연화위궤충격대개혁적영향저량개상호관련적문제납입통일적분석광가。시도위리해중국경제전형과정중적개혁“타연여돌파”현상제공이론분석기출。결론표명：수착기득이익집단수목적증가，권력결구실형도치개혁추진월래월곤난；성본분담문제시영향개혁능부추진적주요인소；위궤，중격통과영향개혁상관방적성본분포추동개혁돌파；여과위궤추동료개혁돌파，위궤유리우사회총복리증가。
The reform process in China showed a strong ＂delay-crisisBreakthrough＂ feature. Based on extended Alesina-Drazen Model, we analyze why reforms are delayed and the mechanism of the crisis to promote reform. This paper reached the following conclusions： First, with the increasing of the number of interest groups, it is more and more difficult to promote the reform; Second, in the process of reform, the cost allocation is the main factor; Third, if the crisis contributed to the reform, the crisis is con- ducive to improve overall social welfare.