CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用金融危机爆发前近十三年的中国财政收支季度数据,系统地分析了财政收支结构和经济增长之间的关系;并利用Panel数据分析方法处理了经济数据的季度效应问题。通过构建理论模型和实证分析,本文得出以下结论：固定效应建模表明经济增长有显著的季节效应;财政收支与经济增长负相关,相对于财政收入,财政支出对经济增长影响更大;财政收支分项建模表明财政收支分项对经济发展有负效应。通过对经济高速增长的10余年财政收支和经济增长关系的研究,为后金融危机时代如何制定更详尽、准确的财政政策提供了量化依据。
본문이용금융위궤폭발전근십삼년적중국재정수지계도수거,계통지분석료재정수지결구화경제증장지간적관계;병이용Panel수거분석방법처리료경제수거적계도효응문제。통과구건이론모형화실증분석,본문득출이하결론：고정효응건모표명경제증장유현저적계절효응;재정수지여경제증장부상관,상대우재정수입,재정지출대경제증장영향경대;재정수지분항건모표명재정수지분항대경제발전유부효응。통과대경제고속증장적10여년재정수지화경제증장관계적연구,위후금융위궤시대여하제정경상진、준학적재정정책제공료양화의거。
This paper,based on the monthly fiscal data from 1995 to 2007 in China,had a systematic analysis of the link between the fiscal structure and economic growth,and also explored season effect of economic data by using the panel data model.On the basis of the theoretical model building and empirical analyses,the conclusions that were reached are as follows： the fixed-effect modeling shows the significant season effect of the economic growth;the relationship between the fiscal revenue expenditure and economic growth is negative.Comparing with fiscal revenue,expenditure produces more effect on the economic growth;the negative effect of the fiscal revenue expenditure items on the economic growth is also found.