西南交通大学学报:社会科学版
西南交通大學學報:社會科學版
서남교통대학학보:사회과학판
Journal of Southwest Jiaotong Universit(Social Science Edition)
2011年
4期
131~136
,共null页
重大传染病 公共卫生事件 非典(SARS) 隔离措施 疫情 系统动力学模型
重大傳染病 公共衛生事件 非典(SARS) 隔離措施 疫情 繫統動力學模型
중대전염병 공공위생사건 비전(SARS) 격리조시 역정 계통동역학모형
major infectious disease; public health emergencies; Severe Acute RespiratorySyndrome ; isolation ; epidemic situation ; system dynamics model
重大传染病发生后若应对不当,往往会借助自然系统或社会系统之间相互依存和相互制约的关系迅速扩散演化,产生一系列次生衍生事件。以重大传染病的发生和发展过程为基础构建其扩散模型,利用系统动力学仿真软件比较不同防控情形下系统演化结果,结果表明:(1)通过对疾病接触系数、自由传播期、开始防控时间进行控制可以改变重大传染病的扩散演化;(2)单独限制人口流动虽可降低传染速率但无法抑制重大传染病的扩散,而同时采取限制人口流动和隔离措施的效果优于单独采取隔离措施。
重大傳染病髮生後若應對不噹,往往會藉助自然繫統或社會繫統之間相互依存和相互製約的關繫迅速擴散縯化,產生一繫列次生衍生事件。以重大傳染病的髮生和髮展過程為基礎構建其擴散模型,利用繫統動力學倣真軟件比較不同防控情形下繫統縯化結果,結果錶明:(1)通過對疾病接觸繫數、自由傳播期、開始防控時間進行控製可以改變重大傳染病的擴散縯化;(2)單獨限製人口流動雖可降低傳染速率但無法抑製重大傳染病的擴散,而同時採取限製人口流動和隔離措施的效果優于單獨採取隔離措施。
중대전염병발생후약응대불당,왕왕회차조자연계통혹사회계통지간상호의존화상호제약적관계신속확산연화,산생일계렬차생연생사건。이중대전염병적발생화발전과정위기출구건기확산모형,이용계통동역학방진연건비교불동방공정형하계통연화결과,결과표명:(1)통과대질병접촉계수、자유전파기、개시방공시간진행공제가이개변중대전염병적확산연화;(2)단독한제인구류동수가강저전염속솔단무법억제중대전염병적확산,이동시채취한제인구류동화격리조시적효과우우단독채취격리조시。
With the interrelated restriction and interaction of natural system or social system, a series of secondary events will derive from major infectious disease if appropriate responses are not made. According to the process of major infectious disease, the diffusion model of the major infectious disease was established, and the results under different prevention and control measures were compared. The results show that : ( 1 ) Diffusion evolution of major infectious disease can be affected by changing the value of the Nfc, Tfree, and Time, (2) Although value of variable Rg can be reduced, diffusion of major infectious disease can not be controlled effectively by only limiting population flow. Therefore, limiting the flow of population and isolating the affected simultaneously is better than the act of isolation only.