CAJ | 학술논문

亚洲经济体持有的外汇储备远超出了经验值范围。亚洲经济体为何囤积外汇储备？本文构建面板数据模型剖析亚洲经济体囤积外汇储备的动机。实证结果表明，亚洲经济体外汇储备囤积行为存在着几种动机：从存量上看，交易性动机和基于预防资本外逃的预防性动机作用最大，但前者比较稳定，后者是驱动外汇储备变动的最重要因素；攀比动机和基于预防经常项目波动的预防性动机存在着上升的趋势；持储动机在不同发展程度和不同汇率制度经济体中也存在着显著的差异性。
아주경제체지유적외회저비원초출료경험치범위。아주경제체위하돈적외회저비？본문구건면판수거모형부석아주경제체돈적외회저비적동궤。실증결과표명，아주경제체외회저비돈적행위존재착궤충동궤：종존량상간，교역성동궤화기우예방자본외도적예방성동궤작용최대，단전자비교은정，후자시구동외회저비변동적최중요인소；반비동궤화기우예방경상항목파동적예방성동궤존재착상승적추세；지저동궤재불동발전정도화불동회솔제도경제체중야존재착현저적차이성。
Foreign exchange reserves held by Asian economies have gone far beyond the traditional theory. Why Asia economies prefer to hoard foreign reserve？ We construct a panel data model of foreign reserve hoarding in Asia. The empirical results show that： In general, Asian economies＇ accumulation of foreign exchange reserves reveals the presence of transaction motivation, precautionary motivation, mercantile motivation and competitive motivation; From the stock point view, the transaction motivation and precautionary motivation based on the prevention of cap- ital flight are of the largest influence, with the former is stable and the latter is most important factor driving changes in foreign exchange reserves. Competitive motivation and precautionary motivation to prevent current account fluctuations are of upward trending, which become new factors driving the change of foreign exchange reserves; besides, reserve holding motivation shows significant difference in different income groups and different exchange rate regimes groups.