中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2011年
7期
1~6
,共null页
电力需求 分部门 预测
電力需求 分部門 預測
전력수구 분부문 예측
electricity demand; sub-sector; forecasting
准确地把握未来10年的电力需求走势是做好电力规划、安排电力建设的重要基础。考虑到不同部门电力需求具有不同的决定因素和机制,本文把全社会用电量分为居民生活用电、农业用电、工业用电、建筑业用电和服务业用电等五个部分,构建、拟合不同的电力需求方程,预测电力需求。预测的主要结果是：＂十二五＂期间全社会用电量年均增长率约为7.8%,2015年用电量超过6万亿kWh,＂十三五＂期间的年均增长率为6.1%2,020年用电量接近8.2万亿kWh。未来10年,单位产值用电量将逐步下降,电力消费增长率将低于GDP增长率,电力需求弹性分别为0.84和0.72。电力需求结构将发生显著变化,到2020年居民生活用电占全社会用电比重为20%左右,工业用电比重将从当前的73%下降到2020年的63%。
準確地把握未來10年的電力需求走勢是做好電力規劃、安排電力建設的重要基礎。攷慮到不同部門電力需求具有不同的決定因素和機製,本文把全社會用電量分為居民生活用電、農業用電、工業用電、建築業用電和服務業用電等五箇部分,構建、擬閤不同的電力需求方程,預測電力需求。預測的主要結果是：＂十二五＂期間全社會用電量年均增長率約為7.8%,2015年用電量超過6萬億kWh,＂十三五＂期間的年均增長率為6.1%2,020年用電量接近8.2萬億kWh。未來10年,單位產值用電量將逐步下降,電力消費增長率將低于GDP增長率,電力需求彈性分彆為0.84和0.72。電力需求結構將髮生顯著變化,到2020年居民生活用電佔全社會用電比重為20%左右,工業用電比重將從噹前的73%下降到2020年的63%。
준학지파악미래10년적전력수구주세시주호전력규화、안배전력건설적중요기출。고필도불동부문전력수구구유불동적결정인소화궤제,본문파전사회용전량분위거민생활용전、농업용전、공업용전、건축업용전화복무업용전등오개부분,구건、의합불동적전력수구방정,예측전력수구。예측적주요결과시：＂십이오＂기간전사회용전량년균증장솔약위7.8%,2015년용전량초과6만억kWh,＂십삼오＂기간적년균증장솔위6.1%2,020년용전량접근8.2만억kWh。미래10년,단위산치용전량장축보하강,전력소비증장솔장저우GDP증장솔,전력수구탄성분별위0.84화0.72。전력수구결구장발생현저변화,도2020년거민생활용전점전사회용전비중위20%좌우,공업용전비중장종당전적73%하강도2020년적63%。
It is essential to predict electricity demand in the next ten years for power planning and construction.Considering various factors and mechanisms determining electricity demand of various sectors,this paper divides the total electricity consumption into five parts： resident,agriculture,industry,construction,and service sectors and establishes different demand equations to make predictions for the electricity demand.The results show that the total electricity consumption will grow at an annual rate of 7.8% during 12th Five-Year-Plan period,which would be more than 6×1012 kWh in 2015 while the annual growing rate will be 6.1% during the 13th Five-Year-Plan period.The total figure will reach nearly 8.2×1012kWh in 2020;In the next decade,the electric power consumption per unit output value will gradually decrease.The growth rate of electricity consumption would be lower than that of GDP with the electricity demand elasticity being 0.84 and 0.72,respectively.The electricity demand structure would change significantly.By 2020,the resident consumption will account for about 20% of the overall electricity consumption in the society with the proportion for industrial electricity consumption declining from 73% to 63%.
