CAJ | 학술논문

本文以环境污染中的重要指标工业废气排放量和经济增长的关系为研究对象，基于1998—2008年中国省际面板数据，检验环境库兹涅茨曲线（EKC）在中国的存在性及相应的拐点研究，并以实证检验为基础对工业废气排放和经济增长的相关关系的影响因素进行分析。结果表明，工业废气排放量在工业化发展的整个阶段始终处于上升趋势，而EKC拐点一般出现在工业化结束之后的一段时间：截至2050年，将有30个省份越过拐点；就各个区域而言，相比中西部地区，东部地区总体上能够较早地到达拐点；同时，我们也应认识到拐点是一个动态变化的点，拐点的变化取决于环境污染程度和经济发展水平间的关系。
본문이배경오염중적중요지표공업폐기배방량화경제증장적관계위연구대상，기우1998—2008년중국성제면판수거，검험배경고자열자곡선（EKC）재중국적존재성급상응적괴점연구，병이실증검험위기출대공업폐기배방화경제증장적상관관계적영향인소진행분석。결과표명，공업폐기배방량재공업화발전적정개계단시종처우상승추세，이EKC괴점일반출현재공업화결속지후적일단시간：절지2050년，장유30개성빈월과괴점；취각개구역이언，상비중서부지구，동부지구총체상능구교조지도체괴점；동시，아문야응인식도괴점시일개동태변화적점，괴점적변화취결우배경오염정도화경제발전수평간적관계。
This paper analyzes the relation between the industrial exhaust emissions and the economic growth, using the panel data of 31 provinces in China from 1998 to 2008. We test the existence of Environmental Kuznets Curve （EKC） in China and analyze the corresponding inflection point and evidence-based tests on environmental pollution and the correlation between economic growth as well as the impact of related factors. The results show that industrial emissions of the whole development stage of industrialization is always in the ascendant trend, while EKC inflection point generally appear after a period of industrialized time ; by 2050, There will be 30 provinces get across the turning point, compared with the midwest, the eastern region in general can earlier arrive the inflection point. At the same time, we should realize inflection point which is a dynamic changes point. That point depends on the relationship between the environment pollution and economic growth.