CAJ | 학술논문

文章利用考虑死力连续变化的随机OLG模型，对长寿风险与资本积累之间的关系进行了探讨。在考虑我国统账结合养老金安排的体制背景下，通过重新构建的动态生命表，数值模拟得到的结果与生命周期理论一致，即长寿风险的增加会促进资本积累，而我国现有的养老金体制安排不能促进资本积累。模拟的改革方案显示提高个人账户在统账结合体制中的相对比重会极大地促进资本积累。
문장이용고필사력련속변화적수궤OLG모형，대장수풍험여자본적루지간적관계진행료탐토。재고필아국통장결합양로금안배적체제배경하，통과중신구건적동태생명표，수치모의득도적결과여생명주기이론일치，즉장수풍험적증가회촉진자본적루，이아국현유적양로금체제안배불능촉진자본적루。모의적개혁방안현시제고개인장호재통장결합체제중적상대비중회겁대지촉진자본적루。
This paper applies a stochastic OLG model with continuous changes in mortality to study the relationship between longevity risk and capital accumulation. Under the background of pension system combining social pool in China, it achieves numerical simulation results consistent with the life cycle theory by reconstructing the dynamic mortality table, that is to say the increase in longevity risk will be conducive to capital accumulation. Current pension arrangement in China cannot promote capital accumulation, and the simulation of reform projects shows that the increases in the relative weight of individual accounts under the pension system combining social pool will greatly boost capital accumulation.