CAJ | 학술논문

本文对我国的居民高储蓄率提出了一个新解释，认为我国居民偏爱储蓄的特性很可能与经济起飞之前人们遭受长期物质匮乏的经历有关。作为物质匮乏的一种极端形式，我国1959--1961年大饥荒为检验这一假说提供了一个自然实验。为此，本文使用2002年中国家庭收入项目调查（CHIPs）数据，估计了大饥荒对家庭储蓄行为的长期影响。我们发现，在控制收入等其他因素后，那些早年经历较严重饥荒的户主家庭表现出更高的储蓄倾向：饥荒程度每上升1个点，家庭储蓄率大约提高23％-26％。这说明早年的饥荒经历确实对人们成年后的家庭储蓄倾向具有重要影响。考虑到在早年时期受大饥荒影响的人们，目前正是我国社会中有较高收入的年龄群体和储蓄主体，他们的高储蓄倾向或许是整个社会高储蓄率的重要原因。
본문대아국적거민고저축솔제출료일개신해석，인위아국거민편애저축적특성흔가능여경제기비지전인문조수장기물질궤핍적경력유관。작위물질궤핍적일충겁단형식，아국1959--1961년대기황위검험저일가설제공료일개자연실험。위차，본문사용2002년중국가정수입항목조사（CHIPs）수거，고계료대기황대가정저축행위적장기영향。아문발현，재공제수입등기타인소후，나사조년경력교엄중기황적호주가정표현출경고적저축경향：기황정도매상승1개점，가정저축솔대약제고23％-26％。저설명조년적기황경력학실대인문성년후적가정저축경향구유중요영향。고필도재조년시기수대기황영향적인문，목전정시아국사회중유교고수입적년령군체화저축주체，타문적고저축경향혹허시정개사회고저축솔적중요원인。
This paper attempts to provide a new explanation on the puzzle of extraordinarily high household saving rates in China in recent years. We proposed a new hypothesis that the extreme poverty and shortage of necessities that one experienced at childhood help to foster his saving-consumption habit of austerity. Using the CHIPs data, we testified this hypothesis adopting the Great Famine that happened in 1959--1961 as a natural experiment. Our results show that the famine happened long ago that influences indeed the household＇ s consuming-saving decision, the more serious the famine that the head suffered was, the higher the household saving rate is. Considering the generation who suffered the great famine or ＂famine generation＂ is the main forces that produce and hold wealth, so their high propensity to save help to explain the overall high household saving rates.