国际经贸探索
國際經貿探索
국제경무탐색
International Economics and Trade Research
2011年
8期
47~53
,共null页
国际热钱 中外利差 人民币升值 股票价格 房地产价格
國際熱錢 中外利差 人民幣升值 股票價格 房地產價格
국제열전 중외리차 인민폐승치 고표개격 방지산개격
international hot money; interest rate between China and abroad; RMB appreciation; stock price; realestate price
文章综合测算了中国短期资本净流入规模，系统地采用1991～2010年的跨时较长的经验数据，实证检验了国际短期资本流入中国的原因。检验结果表明，国际短期资本流入中国的主要动因首先在于谋取股市和房地产市场的增值收益，其次是为搏取人民币升值的利益；至于国内外“利差”因素的影响本文则没有发现。这个结果及其政策含义值得有关方面借鉴。
文章綜閤測算瞭中國短期資本淨流入規模，繫統地採用1991～2010年的跨時較長的經驗數據，實證檢驗瞭國際短期資本流入中國的原因。檢驗結果錶明，國際短期資本流入中國的主要動因首先在于謀取股市和房地產市場的增值收益，其次是為搏取人民幣升值的利益；至于國內外“利差”因素的影響本文則沒有髮現。這箇結果及其政策含義值得有關方麵藉鑒。
문장종합측산료중국단기자본정류입규모，계통지채용1991～2010년적과시교장적경험수거，실증검험료국제단기자본류입중국적원인。검험결과표명，국제단기자본류입중국적주요동인수선재우모취고시화방지산시장적증치수익，기차시위박취인민폐승치적이익；지우국내외“리차”인소적영향본문칙몰유발현。저개결과급기정책함의치득유관방면차감。
Based on the experience data having been updated systematically from 1991 to 2010, this paper estimates the scale and the net value of the short-capital flowing into mainland China. It then focuses on the hot money and carefully testifies the factors attracting the international short capital. The results indicate that the first reason for the in-flowed hot money is to aim at the huge profit from the real estate, and the second reason is mainly to aim at the gain from the RMB appreciation. As for the factor of ＂the interest gap＂ , it finds no obvious evidence. All those conclusions and implications are worthwhile for the related authority to pay attention to.
