CAJ | 학술논문

估算独生子女和非独生子女之间婚配概率及婚配对数是生育政策仿真的关键技术之一。本文首次提出同龄概率法及多龄概率法，并对全国层面独生子女之间、独生子女与非独生子女之间、非独生子女之间的婚配概率及婚配对数进行了估算，详细阐述了两种方法的原理及运算步骤，并对两种方法的运算结果进行分析比较。结果表明，这两种方法都可以计算独生子女和非独生子女之间多种婚配概率，并能估算出各类婚配夫妇对数。其中，同龄概率法较直观，数据易取得，但与实际存在一定的偏差；多龄概率法更接近于现实，受婚配对象人数突变的影响更小。
고산독생자녀화비독생자녀지간혼배개솔급혼배대수시생육정책방진적관건기술지일。본문수차제출동령개솔법급다령개솔법，병대전국층면독생자녀지간、독생자녀여비독생자녀지간、비독생자녀지간적혼배개솔급혼배대수진행료고산，상세천술료량충방법적원리급운산보취，병대량충방법적운산결과진행분석비교。결과표명，저량충방법도가이계산독생자녀화비독생자녀지간다충혼배개솔，병능고산출각류혼배부부대수。기중，동령개솔법교직관，수거역취득，단여실제존재일정적편차；다령개솔법경접근우현실，수혼배대상인수돌변적영향경소。
One key technique of birth policy simulation is to estimate marriage probability and marriage number between different policy subjects. We estimate marriage probability and marriage number among only-child and non-onlychild by the method of the ＂same-age＂ marriage probability and the ＂multi-age＂ marriage probability on this paper. The principle and results of two methods are described and compared. The results show that marriage probability between different policy subjects can be drawn, and marriage number between different policy subjects can be simulated by means of both methods. The method of the ＂same-age＂ marriage probability has advantage of straightforwardness and easy access to data, but may result in deviation from reality. The method of the ＂multi-age＂ marriage probability is closer to reality and less affected by the accidental change of marriage number.