CAJ | 학술논문

再售期权和货币幻觉两个因素分别从投资者对未来现金流分布的信念差异和对贴现率估计偏差的角度解释房地产价格泡沫的形成和膨胀。本文以上海商品住宅市场为例,运用动态剩余价值模型从租金房价比角度测度上海房价泡沫水平,并检验再售期权和货币幻觉对上海房价泡沫的解释作用。经验分析发现,上海商品住宅市场存在再售期权和货币幻觉效应,其中货币幻觉效应对房价泡沫影响具有不对称性但解释作用更强,建议应重点关注高通胀和实际负利率对房价泡沫的影响。
재수기권화화폐환각량개인소분별종투자자대미래현금류분포적신념차이화대첩현솔고계편차적각도해석방지산개격포말적형성화팽창。본문이상해상품주택시장위례,운용동태잉여개치모형종조금방개비각도측도상해방개포말수평,병검험재수기권화화폐환각대상해방개포말적해석작용。경험분석발현,상해상품주택시장존재재수기권화화폐환각효응,기중화폐환각효응대방개포말영향구유불대칭성단해석작용경강,건의응중점관주고통창화실제부리솔대방개포말적영향。
Resale option induced by heterogeneous beliefs about future cash flow and money illusion whereby investors mistakenly use normal discounted rates can provide coherent explanations for house price bubble theoretically.Using Shanghai＇s house price data,the article applies dynamic residual value model to estimate Shanghai＇s house price bubble,and finds resale option and money illusion do provide explanation for house price bubble.The results show that money illusion has asymmetric effects and strong explanation power on Shanghai＇s house price bubble.We should highly focus on the influence of high inflation and real negative interest rate on house price bubble.