CAJ | 학술논문

自2006年以来,我国的资产泡沫严重,研究发现资产价格上涨预期是诱发短期国际资本流动冲击的一个重要因素,严重时会产生金融市场危机风险。基于这样的背景,通过引入资产价格波动变量,修正了Flood引入随机风险溢价的KFG理论模型,分析中国短期国际资本流动触发机制,探究资产价格波动对短期国际资本流动的作用机制。并以此为基础分析中国现有宏观政策对短期国际资本流动风险的作用和政策效果,提出减少投机性国际短期资本流动合理化的政策建议。
자2006년이래,아국적자산포말엄중,연구발현자산개격상창예기시유발단기국제자본류동충격적일개중요인소,엄중시회산생금융시장위궤풍험。기우저양적배경,통과인입자산개격파동변량,수정료Flood인입수궤풍험일개적KFG이론모형,분석중국단기국제자본류동촉발궤제,탐구자산개격파동대단기국제자본류동적작용궤제。병이차위기출분석중국현유굉관정책대단기국제자본류동풍험적작용화정책효과,제출감소투궤성국제단기자본류동합이화적정책건의。
The asset bubble has began to appear Since 2006 in China.Research indicates that expected asset price inflation is an important factor of short-term international capital＇s flow.It can even lead to financial market risks.Based on this background,the paper introduces the uncertainty of the KFG Flood model and modify First-Generation Models-KFG to analyze the trigger mechanism of short-term international capital flow,and explore the mechanism of short-term international capital flow risk.The writer of the paper has found the current macroeconomic policy risk on short-term role of international capital flows and policy effectiveness.At last,the policy recommendations to reduce short-term international speculative capital flows are proposed.