中国人口资源与环境
中國人口資源與環境
중국인구자원여배경
China Polulation.Resources and Environment
2011年
9期
138~144
,共null页
光伏 国际研究 需求拉动Bass模型 市场政策
光伏 國際研究 需求拉動Bass模型 市場政策
광복 국제연구 수구랍동Bass모형 시장정책
photovohaics; cross-countries studies; demand pull; Bass model; market policies
光伏的高成本仍然阻碍着它的犬规模应用,由于技术创新是成本下降的熏要因素,如何实现市场对创新的拉动作用是具有现实意义和理论价值的问题。本研究从市场发展态势的角度分析如何实现市场对创新的拉动作用。首先结合光伏产业特点和技术创新学中的相关理论,提出关于不同阶段的市场态势对市场拉动创新的影响的理论假说。然后建立市场发展态势指标和市场动力检验模型。从而利用20个国家的市场与专利历史数据进行跨国比较分析,根据计量结果识别出市场发展态势对市场发挥拉动创新作用的影响。实证结果表明20个国家中70%的市场发挥了拉动研发创新的作用;在市场培育初期持续过小的市场拉动创新不显著,该发展态势可用技术扩散模型中P指标进行判断;在市场发展加速期急剧扩大的市场拉动创新不显著,该发展态势用技术扩散模型中q指标进行判断。因此,为了促进成本降低,光伏市场政策应主导市场规模实现平稳持续型增长。
光伏的高成本仍然阻礙著它的犬規模應用,由于技術創新是成本下降的熏要因素,如何實現市場對創新的拉動作用是具有現實意義和理論價值的問題。本研究從市場髮展態勢的角度分析如何實現市場對創新的拉動作用。首先結閤光伏產業特點和技術創新學中的相關理論,提齣關于不同階段的市場態勢對市場拉動創新的影響的理論假說。然後建立市場髮展態勢指標和市場動力檢驗模型。從而利用20箇國傢的市場與專利歷史數據進行跨國比較分析,根據計量結果識彆齣市場髮展態勢對市場髮揮拉動創新作用的影響。實證結果錶明20箇國傢中70%的市場髮揮瞭拉動研髮創新的作用;在市場培育初期持續過小的市場拉動創新不顯著,該髮展態勢可用技術擴散模型中P指標進行判斷;在市場髮展加速期急劇擴大的市場拉動創新不顯著,該髮展態勢用技術擴散模型中q指標進行判斷。因此,為瞭促進成本降低,光伏市場政策應主導市場規模實現平穩持續型增長。
광복적고성본잉연조애착타적견규모응용,유우기술창신시성본하강적훈요인소,여하실현시장대창신적랍동작용시구유현실의의화이론개치적문제。본연구종시장발전태세적각도분석여하실현시장대창신적랍동작용。수선결합광복산업특점화기술창신학중적상관이론,제출관우불동계단적시장태세대시장랍동창신적영향적이론가설。연후건립시장발전태세지표화시장동력검험모형。종이이용20개국가적시장여전리역사수거진행과국비교분석,근거계량결과식별출시장발전태세대시장발휘랍동창신작용적영향。실증결과표명20개국가중70%적시장발휘료랍동연발창신적작용;재시장배육초기지속과소적시장랍동창신불현저,해발전태세가용기술확산모형중P지표진행판단;재시장발전가속기급극확대적시장랍동창신불현저,해발전태세용기술확산모형중q지표진행판단。인차,위료촉진성본강저,광복시장정책응주도시장규모실현평은지속형증장。
Since high cost still impedes large-scale deployment of photovoltaics (PV), and technological innovation is one of most important factors of cost reduction, how to accelerate market pull is a topic with practical significance and theoretical value. This paper aims to analyze PV demand pull from the perspective of market trend. First, according to the characteristics of PV industry and technological innovation theories, we make hypothesis of the impacts on the market pull of different market development trends. Then we propose the index of the market development trends and testing models of the market pull, and then use these tools and historical data of twenty countries to conduct empirical studies on impacts of market development trends on market pull. The empirical results show that 70% of PV market in the twenty countries pulled technological innovation ; in the beginning of PV market development, if the market scale kept small, the market pull was insignificant and this market trend can be indicated by index p; in the acceleration period, if the market grew steeply, the market pull was insignificant and this market trend can be indicated by index q. So in order to encourage cost reduction, market policies should make the market scale grow in a smooth and continual way.