CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用我国进口非竞争型投入产出价值量表和相应的数量模型，测算了人民币名义汇率变动通过进口中间投入对国内各部门以及社会生产不同环节价格水平的影响。研究结果表明：在进口产品本币价格对汇率变动反应完全的情况下。人民币升（贬）值1％将引起的国内通货膨胀水平下降（上升）0．2％左右。但是由于进口产品本币价格对汇率反应不完全、国际大宗商品市场价格上升、热钱流入和人民币汇率升值空间限制等因素的影响、我国汇率政策不适宜承担过多的反通货膨胀职能。
본문이용아국진구비경쟁형투입산출개치량표화상응적수량모형，측산료인민폐명의회솔변동통과진구중간투입대국내각부문이급사회생산불동배절개격수평적영향。연구결과표명：재진구산품본폐개격대회솔변동반응완전적정황하。인민폐승（폄）치1％장인기적국내통화팽창수평하강（상승）0．2％좌우。단시유우진구산품본폐개격대회솔반응불완전、국제대종상품시장개격상승、열전류입화인민폐회솔승치공간한제등인소적영향、아국회솔정책불괄의승담과다적반통화팽창직능。
The paper introduces the non-competition input-output table of China and the corresponding quantitative model to investigate the effect of the fluctuation of the RMB nominal exchange rate on the domestic price system through import intermediate input. We find that the level of Inflation will decline （rise） by 0.2 percent or so if lIMB appreciates （depreciates） by one percent under the assumption of the complete exchange rate elasticity of the import price in terms of the home currency. But the RMB exchange rate policy should not be regarded as one of the most important anti-inflation policies because of the incomplete exchange rate elasticity of the import price in terms of the home currency, the jump of the price in the international bulk commodity market, the inflow of hot money and the limitation of the room for RMB appreciation.