CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用改进的阿格沃尔模型，选取1994—2010年数据时我国外汇储备适度规模进行了实证分析，结果表明：目前我国外汇储备规模已经明显过量。Johansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验显示：进出口额、GDP、外商直接投资与外汇储备规模之间存在长期协整关系，对外汇储备规模能够产生长期的影响；但外债余额尤其是短期外债余额和广艾货币供应量也能在短期内对外汇储备规模产生影响。本文认为，改善贸易结构并扩大内需，加大进口力度并支持对外投资，重视GDP的质量并促进经济理性增长，严格外企准入制度并转变外企引进结构，增强人民币汇率弹性等政策措施是抑制我国外汇储备过度增长的有效途径。
본문운용개진적아격옥이모형，선취1994—2010년수거시아국외회저비괄도규모진행료실증분석，결과표명：목전아국외회저비규모이경명현과량。Johansen협정검험화Granger인과관계검험현시：진출구액、GDP、외상직접투자여외회저비규모지간존재장기협정관계，대외회저비규모능구산생장기적영향；단외채여액우기시단기외채여액화엄애화폐공응량야능재단기내대외회저비규모산생영향。본문인위，개선무역결구병확대내수，가대진구력도병지지대외투자，중시GDP적질량병촉진경제이성증장，엄격외기준입제도병전변외기인진결구，증강인민폐회솔탄성등정책조시시억제아국외회저비과도증장적유효도경。
Using improved Agarual Model and the data from 1994 to 2010, our paper provide an empirical analysis on the appropriate level of foreign exchange reserve for our country. The resu/ts show that our country currently holds excessive foreign exchange reserve. The Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test show that, the import and export, GDP, and FDI have eointegration rehtionship with, and therefore have long term effect on the level of foreign exchange reserve. In addition, the foreign loan, especially the shortterm foreign loan, and the money supply also have short - term effects on the level of foreign exchange reserve. Our paper suggests that, improving trade balance with the expand of domestic demand, increasing the import with the prompt of FDI, respecting the quality of GDP with the promotion of rational economic growth, tightening the access condition for foreign companies with the change of foreign companies structure, increasing flexibility in the RMB exchange rate, are the efficient ways to control the excess increase of foreign exchange reserves of our country.