上海国土资源
上海國土資源
상해국토자원
2011年
3期
35~40
,共null页
王冬梅 程和琴 张先林 阮仁良
王鼕梅 程和琴 張先林 阮仁良
왕동매 정화금 장선림 원인량
相对海平面变化 地面沉降 三峡工程 深水航道整治工程 促淤围垦工程 长江口 灰色线性回归组合模型
相對海平麵變化 地麵沉降 三峽工程 深水航道整治工程 促淤圍墾工程 長江口 灰色線性迴歸組閤模型
상대해평면변화 지면침강 삼협공정 심수항도정치공정 촉어위은공정 장강구 회색선성회귀조합모형
changes in RSL; land subsidence; Sanxia water conservancy project; deepwater channel regulation projection; the land reclamation projection; the Yangtze River Estuary; grey model with linear regression analysis
针对传统相对海平面变化分析方法均将理论海平面变化和地面沉降进行的叠加分析,本文讨论和分析了近20年来全球理论海平面上升速率加快背景下的区域海平面变化速率,利用灰色线性回归组合模型预测上海地区海平面变化趋势。考虑了上海地面沉降发展的新特点,以及长江流域来沙显著减少和河口大型工程建设对上海地区相对海平面变化的影响。在流域来沙量显著减少但来水量变化不大情况下,流域大坝的坝下冲刷使得河槽刷深,河口水位降低,同时长江口深水航道整治工程和促淤围垦工程束狭入海口,使得潮位站水位发生变化,两者的综合效应是目前研究长江口相对海平面变化时必须考虑的重要因素。
針對傳統相對海平麵變化分析方法均將理論海平麵變化和地麵沉降進行的疊加分析,本文討論和分析瞭近20年來全毬理論海平麵上升速率加快揹景下的區域海平麵變化速率,利用灰色線性迴歸組閤模型預測上海地區海平麵變化趨勢。攷慮瞭上海地麵沉降髮展的新特點,以及長江流域來沙顯著減少和河口大型工程建設對上海地區相對海平麵變化的影響。在流域來沙量顯著減少但來水量變化不大情況下,流域大壩的壩下遲刷使得河槽刷深,河口水位降低,同時長江口深水航道整治工程和促淤圍墾工程束狹入海口,使得潮位站水位髮生變化,兩者的綜閤效應是目前研究長江口相對海平麵變化時必鬚攷慮的重要因素。
침대전통상대해평면변화분석방법균장이론해평면변화화지면침강진행적첩가분석,본문토론화분석료근20년래전구이론해평면상승속솔가쾌배경하적구역해평면변화속솔,이용회색선성회귀조합모형예측상해지구해평면변화추세。고필료상해지면침강발전적신특점,이급장강류역래사현저감소화하구대형공정건설대상해지구상대해평면변화적영향。재류역래사량현저감소단래수량변화불대정황하,류역대패적패하충쇄사득하조쇄심,하구수위강저,동시장강구심수항도정치공정화촉어위은공정속협입해구,사득조위참수위발생변화,량자적종합효응시목전연구장강구상대해평면변화시필수고필적중요인소。
Relative sea level change reported before has been acquired by the global theoretical sea level rise and local land subsidence.New components consist of the relative sea level change by the strong human interventions in the watershed and estuary of Yangtze River for the recent 20 years in Shanghai are concerned in the present paper.These new components are the regional sea level change with an increasing global theoretical sea-level rise,a decreasing land subsidence controlled by the densely high building and subway,and the water level lowering due to the erosion of channel riverbed with the sediment discharge decrease in the Yangtze River estuary caused by large-scale hydraulic engineering as Three-Gauge Dam in the watershed,and then water level change at gauge stations with the width narrowing of estuarine channels by the engineering as land reclamation and deep navigation channel regulation,fresh water reservoir.Nevertheless,impact of these new parameters should be estimated and predicted and then the combined regional relative sea level change could be predicted by a linear regression analysis integrated with grey system proposed by the authors in the Yangtze River estuary in the 21st century.
