CAJ | 학술논문

近年来，房价与地价的关系一直是学术界与政府决策层密切关注的重要问题。本文通过建立向量误差修正模型，对中国1998-2009年间房价和地价关系进行实证研究。结果发现，房价和地价之间存在长期均衡关系，其格兰杰因果关系走向是房价影响地价，而不是相反。也就是说，房地产的总需求扩张仍是此阶段房价上涨的根源，所谓“地价推涨房价”的说法得不到实证支持。我们还发现，在解释这一期间房价波动中，货币政策影响是最需要注意的因素。
근년래，방개여지개적관계일직시학술계여정부결책층밀절관주적중요문제。본문통과건립향량오차수정모형，대중국1998-2009년간방개화지개관계진행실증연구。결과발현，방개화지개지간존재장기균형관계，기격란걸인과관계주향시방개영향지개，이불시상반。야취시설，방지산적총수구확장잉시차계단방개상창적근원，소위“지개추창방개”적설법득불도실증지지。아문환발현，재해석저일기간방개파동중，화폐정책영향시최수요주의적인소。
In recent years, the relationship between house price and land price has been a hot topic in China. This paper constructs a Vector Error Correction Model to analyze the Chinese quarterly data of the Selling Price Indices of Residential Buildings （ SPIRB ） and the Land Transaction Price Indices of Residential Buildings （LTPIRB） from 1998 to 2009. We find some strong evidences to ascertain a long-term equilibrium relation between LTPIRB and SPIRB. The direction of Granger causality relation is the SPIRB cause the LTPIRB. And the direction of price conduction is from the house＇s to the land＇s, not from the land＇s to the house＇s. So, it tells us that the cause of the inflation of house price is the expansion of demand. Thus the so-called＇ the land price pushing the house price＇is not true. The money policy may be the most useful factor to explain the fluctuations of house price.