CAJ | 학술논문

经济增长方式转变的重要内容是产业结构调整：目前研究大多认为中国第二产业比例过高，中国产业结构调整的重要方向是提高第三产业的比例。本文从发达国家三次产业效率、三次产业供给与需要、国际贸易等方面进行了分析，提出以下基本判断：一是发达国家第三产业比例不断提高，并非反映了第三产业是产业升级的方向．也绝非说明了第三产业比第二产业高级；二是发达国家第三产业比例不断提高的同时．最终消费中第二产业提供的商品比例并没有大幅下降；三是发达国家第三产业比例不断提高．是以发达的国际贸易为基础，以发展中国家第二产业的快速发展为前提，因而在现有技术经济条件下，不具有全球第三产业占比大幅提高的基础；四是发达国家第三产业比例的不断提高也是以发达国家的第三产业与第二产业价格扭曲为基础，如果第二产业价格大幅上升．其占比将会大幅上升。本文利用购买力平价分行业的数据计算了我国2000--2009年的产业结构；计算结果显示目前通行的产业结构数据高估了第二产业近14百分点．本文计算的2009年三次产业结构为5：32：63。2009年的产业结构已经与日本等国2000年相接近：与目前中国人均GDP相同时的发达国家产业结构相比，中国第二产业的比例不是高了．而是低了；中国第二产业占GDP的比例还有提升的空间，第二产业特别是制造业的加快发展仍旧是中国产业升级的方向及产业政策的着力点。虽然经过30年快速的发展．中国经济的要素禀赋在不断发生量变，但到目前为止中国要素禀赋的质变尚未发生．中国的比较优势所在仍旧是劳动密集型产业，而且研究表明至少在“十二五”期间这一状况不会改变。
경제증장방식전변적중요내용시산업결구조정：목전연구대다인위중국제이산업비례과고，중국산업결구조정적중요방향시제고제삼산업적비례。본문종발체국가삼차산업효솔、삼차산업공급여수요、국제무역등방면진행료분석，제출이하기본판단：일시발체국가제삼산업비례불단제고，병비반영료제삼산업시산업승급적방향．야절비설명료제삼산업비제이산업고급；이시발체국가제삼산업비례불단제고적동시．최종소비중제이산업제공적상품비례병몰유대폭하강；삼시발체국가제삼산업비례불단제고．시이발체적국제무역위기출，이발전중국가제이산업적쾌속발전위전제，인이재현유기술경제조건하，불구유전구제삼산업점비대폭제고적기출；사시발체국가제삼산업비례적불단제고야시이발체국가적제삼산업여제이산업개격뉴곡위기출，여과제이산업개격대폭상승．기점비장회대폭상승。본문이용구매력평개분행업적수거계산료아국2000--2009년적산업결구；계산결과현시목전통행적산업결구수거고고료제이산업근14백분점．본문계산적2009년삼차산업결구위5：32：63。2009년적산업결구이경여일본등국2000년상접근：여목전중국인균GDP상동시적발체국가산업결구상비，중국제이산업적비례불시고료．이시저료；중국제이산업점GDP적비례환유제승적공간，제이산업특별시제조업적가쾌발전잉구시중국산업승급적방향급산업정책적착력점。수연경과30년쾌속적발전．중국경제적요소품부재불단발생량변，단도목전위지중국요소품부적질변상미발생．중국적비교우세소재잉구시노동밀집형산업，이차연구표명지소재“십이오”기간저일상황불회개변。
The essence of transforming economic growth pattern is the adjustment of industrial structure. Most of the existing researches believed that proportion of China＇s secondary industry is too high, and the direction of China＇s industrial restructuring is to raise the proportion of the tertiary industry. In this paper, the authors analyzed the efficiency, supply and demand and international trade of the three industries, and made the following judgments：（1）Rising proportion of the tertiary industries in developed countries does not justify it as the direction of industrial upgrade, nor it is better than the secondary industry; （2）Despite growing proportion of tertiary industry in developed countries, there is no significant drop in the ratio of commodities provided by secondary industry in final consumption; （3）Rising proportion of tertiary industry is based on advanced international trade in developed countries and fast growing secondary industry in developing countries, a prerequisite global does not have at the moment; （4）Rising proportion of tertiary industry in developed countries is at the expense of price distortion between tertiary and secondary industry, whereas sharp price rise in secondary industry will push up the proportion. This paper calculated China＇s industrial structure of 2000--2009 with purchasing power parity data. Results show that current prevailing industrial structure data overestimated the secondary industry by nearly 14 percentage points, the ratio between the three industries should be： 5：32：63, which is close to that of Japan in 2000. Compared to developed countries with the same level of per capita GDP, the ratio of China＇s secondary industry is not too high, but too low and there is room for improvement. Accelerated development of the secondary industry, especially manufacturing in China remains the direction of industrial upgrading and the focus of industrial policy. Despite three decades of fast growth, factor endowments of China＇s economy continue to have quantitative change, but qualitative change has yet occurred. China＇s comparative advantage still lies in labor-intensive industries at least during the ＂12th Five-Year Plan＂ period.