CAJ | 학술논문

文章利用投入产出模型，研究对外贸易对广东省CO2排放量的影响，并利用Divisia指数分解模型，解释了造成这种影响的原因。投入产出方法的实证结果表明，对外贸易不利于省内CO2减排，但有利于降低广东省的碳排放强度。Divisia指数分解的结果表明，协调结构效应和技术效应的“交叉”作用是降低贸易CO2排放强度的关键；广东省的贸易顺差额是导致广东省CO2净内含量顺差的主要因素，技术效应和结构效应可以减少CO2贸易顺差，但是这两个效应所起的作用相对较小。
문장이용투입산출모형，연구대외무역대광동성CO2배방량적영향，병이용Divisia지수분해모형，해석료조성저충영향적원인。투입산출방법적실증결과표명，대외무역불리우성내CO2감배，단유리우강저광동성적탄배방강도。Divisia지수분해적결과표명，협조결구효응화기술효응적“교차”작용시강저무역CO2배방강도적관건；광동성적무역순차액시도치광동성CO2정내함량순차적주요인소，기술효응화결구효응가이감소CO2무역순차，단시저량개효응소기적작용상대교소。
This paper studies the influence of foreign trade on the CO2 emission of Guangdong Province by using I-O model, and explains the influence by using Divisia index decomposition. The result of I-O model analysis shows that foreign trade can reduce CO2 emission intensity, but will increase the CO2 emission of Guangdong Province. The result of Divisia index decomposition shows that adjusting the relationship between technology effect and composition effect is the key to decreasing the CO2 emission intensity embodied in trade, and that the trade surplus of Guangdong province can account for the CO2 trade surplus while technology effect and composition effect can reduce the CO2 trade surplus, but their influence is sti1l small.