CAJ | 학술논문

首先以我国A股上市公司2003—2008年的各季度业绩预警中的业绩预悲公告为研究对象，发现其存在一种特有的现象——群聚。然后选取综合业、房地产业、批发零售业和交运仓储业中的391个跟随者的业绩预悲披露为样本，运用威布尔比例风险模型从管理者羊群行为视角对群聚现象作出解释。实证结果发现：公司在特定的某天进行业绩预悲披露的概率与在其之前发布业绩预悲信息的同类公司数量正相关。也即观察到的发布业绩预悲信息的同类公司数量越多，管理者越会作出更快的披露公司业绩预悲信息的决策，从而造成了披露时机的群聚。
수선이아국A고상시공사2003—2008년적각계도업적예경중적업적예비공고위연구대상，발현기존재일충특유적현상——군취。연후선취종합업、방지산업、비발령수업화교운창저업중적391개근수자적업적예비피로위양본，운용위포이비례풍험모형종관리자양군행위시각대군취현상작출해석。실증결과발현：공사재특정적모천진행업적예비피로적개솔여재기지전발포업적예비신식적동류공사수량정상관。야즉관찰도적발포업적예비신식적동류공사수량월다，관리자월회작출경쾌적피로공사업적예비신식적결책，종이조성료피로시궤적군취。
Taking the quarterly Earning Warnings of negative profit forecast （pre-sad performance） in Chinese A share listed companies from 2003 to 2008 for the study, we found the unique phenomenon-clustering. With 391 followers＇ negative profit forecasts in four industry of Comprehensive, wholesale and retail trade, real estate and delivered storage as our sample, we try to explain the clustering phenomenon from the managers＇ herd behavior perspective by using the Weibull proportional hazards model of survival analysis. Empirical results showed that： probability of negative profit forecast announcement in a particular day and the number of peer companies that had released the negative profit forecast in advance are positively correlated, that is, the more peer companies disclosure it observed, the faster it will disclose its own. Therefore, managers＇ herd behavior in negative profit forecast disclosure is an important reason for ＂clustering＂ phenomenon.