上海金融
上海金融
상해금융
Shanghai Finance
2011年
10期
9~14
,共null页
美元 油价 价值储存效应 中国因素
美元 油價 價值儲存效應 中國因素
미원 유개 개치저존효응 중국인소
US Dollar; Oil Price; Value Storage Effect; China Factor
本文发现美元对油价的影响在2001年前不明显，2001年后明显增强。针对这种现象，我们重新考察了美元对油价的影响机制。认为美元主要通过其在国际上承担的三种职能来影响油价，其中计价与价值储存效应为负，结算效应为正；2001年以前，价值储存效应比较弱，计价与结算两者效应一负一正倾向于相互抵消；而2001以后，价值储存效应明显加大，三种效应两负一正，美元对油价的负面影响显著提高。另外，分析表明中国因素不重要。
本文髮現美元對油價的影響在2001年前不明顯，2001年後明顯增彊。針對這種現象，我們重新攷察瞭美元對油價的影響機製。認為美元主要通過其在國際上承擔的三種職能來影響油價，其中計價與價值儲存效應為負，結算效應為正；2001年以前，價值儲存效應比較弱，計價與結算兩者效應一負一正傾嚮于相互牴消；而2001以後，價值儲存效應明顯加大，三種效應兩負一正，美元對油價的負麵影響顯著提高。另外，分析錶明中國因素不重要。
본문발현미원대유개적영향재2001년전불명현，2001년후명현증강。침대저충현상，아문중신고찰료미원대유개적영향궤제。인위미원주요통과기재국제상승담적삼충직능래영향유개，기중계개여개치저존효응위부，결산효응위정；2001년이전，개치저존효응비교약，계개여결산량자효응일부일정경향우상호저소；이2001이후，개치저존효응명현가대，삼충효응량부일정，미원대유개적부면영향현저제고。령외，분석표명중국인소불중요。
The article finds out that the influence of U.S. dollar on oil price was not obvious before 2001, but has become obviously strong since that. In view of this, we reexamines the influencing mechanism of US dollar on oil price, and maintains that US dollar affects oil price though its three functions, among which pricing effect and value storage effect are negative, while settlement effect is positive; before 2011, value storage effect is weak, while pricing and settlement effects offset each other; since then, value storage effect has become obviously strong. Of all the three effects, two are negative and one is positive, so all in all, the negative influence of US dollar on oil prico increased. Besides, the analysis also reveals that China factor doesn＇t count.
