CAJ | 학술논문

根据1996年～2008年能源消费数据，对东部地区12个省份的CO：排放量进行估算，并且利用LMDI方法对其进行因素分解。结果表明：东部地区碳排放呈快速增长趋势，且不同省份之间碳排放量差异比较明显；经济增长、人口规模和能源结构是东部地区碳排放的驱动因素，其中经济增长是最关键的因子，而技术进步是东部地区碳排放的抑制因素，但是在不同年份之间存在较大的随机性。基于此，提出了减少东部地区CO：排放的相关政策建议．以适应中国的低碳经济道路。
근거1996년～2008년능원소비수거，대동부지구12개성빈적CO：배방량진행고산，병차이용LMDI방법대기진행인소분해。결과표명：동부지구탄배방정쾌속증장추세，차불동성빈지간탄배방량차이비교명현；경제증장、인구규모화능원결구시동부지구탄배방적구동인소，기중경제증장시최관건적인자，이기술진보시동부지구탄배방적억제인소，단시재불동년빈지간존재교대적수궤성。기우차，제출료감소동부지구CO：배방적상관정책건의．이괄응중국적저탄경제도로。
Based on the energy consumption data from 1996 to 2008, this paper estimates the carbon dioxide emissions of 12 provinces in the east- ern region, and decomposes it using LMDI method. The results show that： firstly, the carbon emissions show a rapid growth trend in the eastern region, and the difference of carbon emissions is obvious among the different provinces; secondly, economic growth, population size and energy structure are the drivers of carbon emissions in the eastern region, and economic growth is the most critical factor; thirdly, technological advance reduces the carbon emissions in the eastern region, but it shows randomness between different year. Finally the paper puts forward corresponding policy suggestions to reduce the carbon emissions in the eastern region so as to conform the low carbon economy.