CAJ | 학술논문

城市化和工业化产生的碳排放是当今中国影响气候变化的重要因素。经济增长和碳排放之间的关系是当今研究的热点问题。本文研究南京市低碳经济发展的现状、阶段及演化特点。发现30年来．南京市低碳经济发展呈现波动反复的特点，扩张负脱钩3次。较高能源消费的经济增长形式一扩张连接4次，经济发展实现与能源消费较好脱钩的弱负脱钩1次，强脱钩4次。其余为弱脱钩。基于内生经济增长模型Moon．Sonn，建立了南京经济增长预测模型，并探讨了不同发展模式下南京未来50年低碳经济水平及碳排放量演化规律，预测了不同低碳经济水平下南京碳排放量和峰值出现的时间。研究结果显示。按现行经济模式．南京2050—2060年碳总量增加速度逐步减缓，约在2058年左右实现碳总量的负增长。50年内南京市预计为扩张负脱钩和扩张连接。难以实现稳定的高水平低碳经济增长模式；设定最优能源强度参数的模式下，南京迅速实现稳定强脱钩的低碳经济，碳释放量EKC曲线呈现倒U型，2015年左右即达到峰值。综合各种因素，南京近几年将延续模式1的增长模式，在2020年左右实现向模式2转变。其碳释放量约于2028年前后出现峰值。
성시화화공업화산생적탄배방시당금중국영향기후변화적중요인소。경제증장화탄배방지간적관계시당금연구적열점문제。본문연구남경시저탄경제발전적현상、계단급연화특점。발현30년래．남경시저탄경제발전정현파동반복적특점，확장부탈구3차。교고능원소비적경제증장형식일확장련접4차，경제발전실현여능원소비교호탈구적약부탈구1차，강탈구4차。기여위약탈구。기우내생경제증장모형Moon．Sonn，건립료남경경제증장예측모형，병탐토료불동발전모식하남경미래50년저탄경제수평급탄배방량연화규률，예측료불동저탄경제수평하남경탄배방량화봉치출현적시간。연구결과현시。안현행경제모식．남경2050—2060년탄총량증가속도축보감완，약재2058년좌우실현탄총량적부증장。50년내남경시예계위확장부탈구화확장련접。난이실현은정적고수평저탄경제증장모식；설정최우능원강도삼수적모식하，남경신속실현은정강탈구적저탄경제，탄석방량EKC곡선정현도U형，2015년좌우즉체도봉치。종합각충인소，남경근궤년장연속모식1적증장모식，재2020년좌우실현향모식2전변。기탄석방량약우2028년전후출현봉치。
The carbon emissions produced by China urbanization and industrialization today is an important factor affecting climate change, so the relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions is a hot research issue currently. This paper, by studying present development situation, stage and evolution features of Nanjing＇s low-carbon economy, found that the development of Nanjing＇s lowcarbon economy fluctuated repeatedly in the past 30 years： the negative expansion decoupling appeared three times; economic growth mode of higher energy consumption had expansion connection four times; better decoupling between economic development and energy consumption had weak negative decoupling once; stronge decoupling appeared four times; the rest low-carbon economy coefficients had weak decoupling. Based on the endogenous economic growth model Moon-Sonn, the economic growth forecast model of Nanjing City was established, discussing the level of low-carbon economy and the evolution law of carbon emissions in different development modes of Nanjing in the next five decades, predicting Nanjing＇s low-carbon economy emissions amount and when its peak time would appear at the different levels of low-carbon economy. The results show that the total carbon increasing rate of Nanjing will gradually slow down under the current economic model in the years 2050 - 2060, and the total carbon will achieve a negative growth in about 2058. Nanjing is expected to have negative expansion decoupling and expansion connections in 50 years, then it is difficult to achieve stable high level low- carbon economic growth mode. When setting the optimal energy intensity parameters mode, Nanjing will rapidly achieve stable strong decoupling low-carbon economy, and the Environmental Kuznets Curves （EKC） of Carbon emissions will present an inverted-U curve, which the peak will appear in around 2015. Considering various factors, the paper estimates that Nanjing will continue growth model 1 in recent years, then it will change to the mode 2 in 2020, and the peak of the carbon release is about to appear in around 2028.