CAJ | 학술논문

在美国持续维持宽松货币政策的背景下，热钱流入是否会影响我国金融市场发展受到关注，通过对2002年1月到2010年8月数据的研究我们发现，热钱与股市市值的关系适合使用非线性模型来拟合，当前二期股市市值下降较快（下降速度高于10．8％）或者上升较快（上升速度高于37．5％）时，热钱对于股市市值的非线性影响就会显现，此时前二期股市市值和前一期热钱分别变动1％会引起当期股市市值变动-1．9588％和0．2328％。
재미국지속유지관송화폐정책적배경하，열전류입시부회영향아국금융시장발전수도관주，통과대2002년1월도2010년8월수거적연구아문발현，열전여고시시치적관계괄합사용비선성모형래의합，당전이기고시시치하강교쾌（하강속도고우10．8％）혹자상승교쾌（상승속도고우37．5％）시，열전대우고시시치적비선성영향취회현현，차시전이기고시시치화전일기열전분별변동1％회인기당기고시시치변동-1．9588％화0．2328％。
In the background of the U.S. continually maintaining the loose monetary policy, people focus on whether hot money inflow will affect the development of Chinese financial market. Through researching the monthly data from Jan. 2002 to Aug. 2010, the au- thors found the relationship between hot money and stock market capitalization is fit to be imitated with nonlinear model. When the mar- ket capitalization in the previous two periods dropped quickly（ decreasing rate higher than 10.8% ） or rose quickly （rising rate higher than 37.5% ） , the nonlinear influence of hot money inflow on market capitalization will show. At this time the 1% change in the market capitalization in the previous two periods and hot money inflow in the previous period separately will cause the change of - 1. 9588% and 0. 2328% in the current period market capitalization.