CAJ | 학술논문

通过多变量Prob it模型考察了我国农村贫困在两期之间的状态依赖性,同时分析了决定我国农村居民当期免于贫困的因素,研究发现：（1）人力资本投资中的教育投资和健康投资的反贫困效果最好;（2）从贫困的状态依赖性来看,我国农村低收入者没有陷入明显的持续贫困,收入流动性较强;（3）农村女性收入状况逐年改善,婚姻状况有利于缓解贫困,国家公务员或者企业经理,政府机关、国有企事业单位性质的员工陷入贫困的概率更低,东部地区居民容易免于贫困;（4）改革开放的制度变迁给农村居民带来收入变动的机遇,同时也增加了他们收入的不稳定性;（5）回归结果对低收入门槛的定义比较敏感,有必要在收入分布的＂绝对贫困＂区域上方再划定一个＂基本贫困＂区域。
통과다변량Prob it모형고찰료아국농촌빈곤재량기지간적상태의뢰성,동시분석료결정아국농촌거민당기면우빈곤적인소,연구발현：（1）인력자본투자중적교육투자화건강투자적반빈곤효과최호;（2）종빈곤적상태의뢰성래간,아국농촌저수입자몰유함입명현적지속빈곤,수입류동성교강;（3）농촌녀성수입상황축년개선,혼인상황유리우완해빈곤,국가공무원혹자기업경리,정부궤관、국유기사업단위성질적원공함입빈곤적개솔경저,동부지구거민용역면우빈곤;（4）개혁개방적제도변천급농촌거민대래수입변동적궤우,동시야증가료타문수입적불은정성;（5）회귀결과대저수입문함적정의비교민감,유필요재수입분포적＂절대빈곤＂구역상방재화정일개＂기본빈곤＂구역。
This paper discusses poverty state dependence in Chinese rural area with multivariate Probit model and analyzes the current antipoverty determinants.It finds that：（1） education investment and health investment have the best effect;（2） seeing from the poverty state dependence,low-earning rural people do not fall into obviously continuous poverty,and the income mobility is strong;（3） the income of the rural female has improved in recent years and their marriage is helpful to eliminating poverty.Civil servants,business managers and employees working for government,state-owned business are probably not getting into poverty.And residents in Chinese east area are more likely shake off poverty;（4） institutional change in Chinese reform and open policy not only increases the income of rural residents,but also enhances their income instability;（5） the regressing outcome is sensitive to low incoming threshold,so it is necessary to demarcate a ＂basic poverty＂ area on the top of ＂absolute poverty＂ area in income distribution.