CAJ | 학술논문

利用更具稳健性小样本特性的自回归分布滞后（ARDL）模型和Toda-Yamamoto因果检验方法,从国家总体和三次产业的角度实证研究了能源消费与经济增长间的互动关系。结果表明：总体上,国内生产总值与能源消费总量间存在长期均衡关系,且国内生产总值是能源消费总量的Granger原因;第一产业增加值与能源消费间关系相对独立,但第二产业、第三产业增加值与能源消费间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,且表现为第二产业增加值是能源消费的Granger原因,而第三产业增加值与能源消费的Granger关系则刚好相反。
이용경구은건성소양본특성적자회귀분포체후（ARDL）모형화Toda-Yamamoto인과검험방법,종국가총체화삼차산업적각도실증연구료능원소비여경제증장간적호동관계。결과표명：총체상,국내생산총치여능원소비총량간존재장기균형관계,차국내생산총치시능원소비총량적Granger원인;제일산업증가치여능원소비간관계상대독립,단제이산업、제삼산업증가치여능원소비간존재장기은정적균형관계,차표현위제이산업증가치시능원소비적Granger원인,이제삼산업증가치여능원소비적Granger관계칙강호상반。
This paper studies the relationship between energy consumption and economic growth from both the country and the three industries and suggests the use of an autoregressive distributed lag（ARDL） procedure and Toda-Yamamoto causality test.The results show that： overall,there is a long-run relationship between GDP and total energy consumption,and GDP is the Granger causality to total energy consumption.In addition,there is no relationship between first industrial added value and energy consumption,while secondary industrial added value and tertiary industrial added value is co-integrated with their energy consumption respectively.Moreover,there is a unidirectional causality from secondary industrial added value to energy consumption and a unidirectional causality from energy consumption to tertiary industrial added value.