CAJ | 학술논문

本文基于混合新凯恩斯菲利普斯曲线、采用状态空间研究方法,分析了我国通货膨胀的动态特征、影响因素和未来趋势。主要结论为：我国通货膨胀具有显著的动态性,理性预期、适应性预期及产出缺口均是现实通胀的有效驱动因素。2011年第四季度通胀压力依然较大,且明年上半年物价在相对高位运行。
본문기우혼합신개은사비리보사곡선、채용상태공간연구방법,분석료아국통화팽창적동태특정、영향인소화미래추세。주요결론위：아국통화팽창구유현저적동태성,이성예기、괄응성예기급산출결구균시현실통창적유효구동인소。2011년제사계도통창압력의연교대,차명년상반년물개재상대고위운행。
On the base of Hybrid New Keynesian Phillips Curve,this paper analyzes China＇s Inflation dynamics,influencing factors and future trends by the method of ＂State Space＂.The main results： there is obvious dynamic feature in China＇s Inflation;rational expectation,adaptive expectation and output gap are the valid drivers in determining real Inflation;the pressure of Inflation is still large in the 4th quarter of 2011,and CPI will run high in the 1st half of next year.