山东大学学报：哲学社会科学版
山東大學學報：哲學社會科學版
산동대학학보：철학사회과학판
Journal of Shandong University(Philosophy and Social Sciences)
2011年
6期
49~53
,共null页
国际资本流动 房价 波动风险 Granger因果分析 蒙特卡罗
國際資本流動 房價 波動風險 Granger因果分析 矇特卡囉
국제자본류동 방개 파동풍험 Granger인과분석 몽특잡라
international capital flows; housing prices; fluctuation risks; Granger Causality analysis; Monte Carlo Method
国际资本流动是引发房地产市场风险的重要因素。利用山东省2002Q1—20LOQ2的数据为样本，通过分析国际资本流动与房价波动之关系，确定了国际资本流动对房价波动风险的影响。结论是：国际资本流动与房价之间的相互影响较为明显，它比土地价格对房价的影响还要大，而且国内房价对国际资本流动的敏感度较高。故为防范房价的波动风险，相关监管部门需对国际资本的流向给予足够重视。
國際資本流動是引髮房地產市場風險的重要因素。利用山東省2002Q1—20LOQ2的數據為樣本，通過分析國際資本流動與房價波動之關繫，確定瞭國際資本流動對房價波動風險的影響。結論是：國際資本流動與房價之間的相互影響較為明顯，它比土地價格對房價的影響還要大，而且國內房價對國際資本流動的敏感度較高。故為防範房價的波動風險，相關鑑管部門需對國際資本的流嚮給予足夠重視。
국제자본류동시인발방지산시장풍험적중요인소。이용산동성2002Q1—20LOQ2적수거위양본，통과분석국제자본류동여방개파동지관계，학정료국제자본류동대방개파동풍험적영향。결론시：국제자본류동여방개지간적상호영향교위명현，타비토지개격대방개적영향환요대，이차국내방개대국제자본류동적민감도교고。고위방범방개적파동풍험，상관감관부문수대국제자본적류향급여족구중시。
International capital flow is a sig;nificant factor triggering real estate market risks. By analyzing the relationship between international capital flow and housing price fluctuations, this paper confirms the influence of international capital flow on the fluctuation risk of the housing price, using 2002Ql -2010Q2 data in Shandong province. It is found that international capital flow has a substantial impact on housing prices, which is greater than the impact of land prices on housing price. In addition, domestic house prices are found to be very sensitive to international capital flow. Consequently, relevant supervisory departments should pay enough attention to international capital flows to avoid and/or reduce housing price fluctuation risks.
