CAJ | 학술논문

利用H—P滤波法来研究投资、消费、出口的周期变动与经济周期之间关系，研究表明在1978—2008年间我国经济周期大致分为3个阶段；然后分别以三个阶段为样本，将最终消费分解为城镇居民消费、农村居民消费和政府消费，利用偏最小二乘法研究投资、城镇居民消费、农村居民消费、政府消费、出口和产业结构对经济增长的贡献，研究表明投资、出口、农村居民消费的产出弹性有上升的趋势，城镇居民消费和政府消费的产出弹性先上升后下降，产业结构对经济增长的影响呈现下降的趋势。农村居民消费需求不足和产业结构不合理已成为制约中国经济发展的主要瓶颈，扩大农村居民的消费需求和调整产业结构已成当务之急。
이용H—P려파법래연구투자、소비、출구적주기변동여경제주기지간관계，연구표명재1978—2008년간아국경제주기대치분위3개계단；연후분별이삼개계단위양본，장최종소비분해위성진거민소비、농촌거민소비화정부소비，이용편최소이승법연구투자、성진거민소비、농촌거민소비、정부소비、출구화산업결구대경제증장적공헌，연구표명투자、출구、농촌거민소비적산출탄성유상승적추세，성진거민소비화정부소비적산출탄성선상승후하강，산업결구대경제증장적영향정현하강적추세。농촌거민소비수구불족화산업결구불합리이성위제약중국경제발전적주요병경，확대농촌거민적소비수구화조정산업결구이성당무지급。
This paper analyses the relations of consumption, investment, export and economic cycle using Hodrick-Prescott filter. The resuh：s show that the economic cycle of China is divided into three stages from 1978 to 2008. By the partial least squares method research contribution of investment, urban consumption, rural consumption and government consumption, exports and industrial structure to economic growth. The results show that output： elasticity of investment, exports, rural consumption has rising trend; output elasticity of urban consumption and government consumption rise firstly then decline; effect of industrial structure to economic growth has declining trend. The shortage of rural resident consumption demand and irrational industrial structure restrict the China＇s economic development. It is urgent for us to expand rural resident consumption demand and adjust the industrial structure.