CAJ | 학술논문

物流需求预测的准确性对物流基础设施投入和物流政策制定是至关重要的。根据物流需求受经济、社会发展和环境政策等不确定因素影响的特点，融合灰色理论与马尔科夫链，用灰色预测揭示系统时序变化的总体趋势，马尔科夫方法预测序列的随机波动的范围，能够优化灰色预测结果，提高预测的精度。以货运量为物流需求度量指标，建立灰色状态马尔科夫组合预测模型，对“十二五”期间青岛市物流需求量进行预测，预测结果可为青岛市“十二五”期间物流发展战略制定、物流服务体系构建和物流园区建设等工作提供理论参考和数据支撑。
물류수구예측적준학성대물류기출설시투입화물류정책제정시지관중요적。근거물류수구수경제、사회발전화배경정책등불학정인소영향적특점，융합회색이론여마이과부련，용회색예측게시계통시서변화적총체추세，마이과부방법예측서렬적수궤파동적범위，능구우화회색예측결과，제고예측적정도。이화운량위물류수구도량지표，건립회색상태마이과부조합예측모형，대“십이오”기간청도시물류수구량진행예측，예측결과가위청도시“십이오”기간물류발전전략제정、물류복무체계구건화물류완구건설등공작제공이론삼고화수거지탱。
The accuracy of logistics demand forecast is essential for the investment of logistics infrastructure and the formulation of logistics development policy. According to the characteristic of logistics demand that is influenced by several uncertain factors, in- cluding the economy, social development, and environment policies, this paper integrates the Grey theory and Markov chain theory, uses Grey theory to reveal the general trend of system sequential change, and applies Markov method to predict the random fluctuation range of the sequential variation to be able to optimize prediction results and improve the accuracy of prediction. The freight volume is chosen as the measurement criteria of logistics demand, and the prediction of Gray theory and Markov method are established to predict the logistics demand of Qingdao during the 12th five year plan, and forecasting re- sults can be applied to provide theoretical reference and data support for making logistics development strategy and building logistics service system and logistics construction during Twelfth Five period.