企业经济
企業經濟
기업경제
Enterprise Economy
2011年
10期
140~144
,共null页
登记失业率 实际失业率
登記失業率 實際失業率
등기실업솔 실제실업솔
registered unemployment rate; actual unemployment rate
失业是关乎民生及社会经济稳定的重要问题，具有牵一发而动全身的特点。改革开放以来，尤其是20世纪90年代后期以来，我国劳动力市场供求局势日趋严峻。如何科学、合理地测算我国真实城镇失业率，是劳动经济学界十分关注的难点问题。依照方法的可操作性、运算的简易性及数据的可获得性准则，同时为能更好地解释和反映影响失业率的各种基本因素，与实际情况尽可能接近，本文修正移动平均模型，以调整系数法为基础，对我国实际城镇失业率进行测算，以期得到更为符合实际的估算结果，为缓解就业压力，治理失业提供可资借鉴的理论依据。
失業是關乎民生及社會經濟穩定的重要問題，具有牽一髮而動全身的特點。改革開放以來，尤其是20世紀90年代後期以來，我國勞動力市場供求跼勢日趨嚴峻。如何科學、閤理地測算我國真實城鎮失業率，是勞動經濟學界十分關註的難點問題。依照方法的可操作性、運算的簡易性及數據的可穫得性準則，同時為能更好地解釋和反映影響失業率的各種基本因素，與實際情況儘可能接近，本文脩正移動平均模型，以調整繫數法為基礎，對我國實際城鎮失業率進行測算，以期得到更為符閤實際的估算結果，為緩解就業壓力，治理失業提供可資藉鑒的理論依據。
실업시관호민생급사회경제은정적중요문제，구유견일발이동전신적특점。개혁개방이래，우기시20세기90년대후기이래，아국노동력시장공구국세일추엄준。여하과학、합리지측산아국진실성진실업솔，시노동경제학계십분관주적난점문제。의조방법적가조작성、운산적간역성급수거적가획득성준칙，동시위능경호지해석화반영영향실업솔적각충기본인소，여실제정황진가능접근，본문수정이동평균모형，이조정계수법위기출，대아국실제성진실업솔진행측산，이기득도경위부합실제적고산결과，위완해취업압력，치리실업제공가자차감적이론의거。
Unemployment is a significant issue related to people＇s livelihood and social and economic stability, with characteristics of one change making all change. Since the reform and opening up, especially since the late 1990s,the supply and demand situation of our country＇ s labor market has been getting increasingly more severe. How to scientifically and reasonably cal- culate the real unemployment rate of urban and township in our country is a difficult problem that the labor economics circle pays much attention to. According to the standards of the operability of method, the simplicity of computation, and the availability of data. Meanwhile, in order to better explain and reflect various basic factors influencing unemployment rate to approach the actual situation as close as possible,this paper has modified the model of moving average, and calculated the actual urban unemployment rate based on adjusted coefficient method in the hope of getting more realistic estimated results to provide theoretical basis for alleviating the employment pressure and controlling unemployment.
