CAJ | 학술논문

本文提出并证明了平均预期寿命增量与对应生命表中尚存人数增量成等比例关系的命题，给出了利用该命题编制我国省级地区研究期内各年生命表的方法，以及基于编制的生命表预测老年人数峰值期的步骤，介绍了构建拟合样本精度高且老年人数预测值满足峰值期的向量自回归模型的方法，最后以上海市为例进行实证分析。结果表明，使用该方法建立模型并进行预测，提高了总人数、老年人数以及老龄化系数中长期预测值的精度。
본문제출병증명료평균예기수명증량여대응생명표중상존인수증량성등비례관계적명제，급출료이용해명제편제아국성급지구연구기내각년생명표적방법，이급기우편제적생명표예측노년인수봉치기적보취，개소료구건의합양본정도고차노년인수예측치만족봉치기적향량자회귀모형적방법，최후이상해시위례진행실증분석。결과표명，사용해방법건립모형병진행예측，제고료총인수、노년인수이급노령화계수중장기예측치적정도。
This article proposes and proves a proportional relationship between the increment of average life expectancy and the number of people who are still alive in the corresponding life table, gives the method of establishing complete life tables of each year of China＇s provincial regions during the research period by proposition compilation, describes the steps of predicting the peak period of aging population based on compiled life tables, and constructs a fitting sample with a high accuracy and the predictive value of aging people consistent with the Vector Autoregression Model method. Finally, this article conducts an empirical analysis by taking Shanghai as the example and the results show that it helps increase the overall number of people and aging people and the accuracy of the middle and long term predictive value of aging coefficient through modeling and prediction by using the method introdueed in this article.