CAJ | 학술논문

本文运用周期滤波方法分析1991~2010年间中国GDP与信贷余额①的季度数据．结果显示信贷余额表现为阶段，lI页周期和阶段反周期关系，特别是次贷危机后，信贷与产出显著背离。基于中国经济模型的理论研究认为，信贷周期模型可以较好地拟合实际经济。但本文的研究发现．单纯信贷约束机制的周期模型不能很好拟合中国实际经济。本文模型预测：信贷约束机制的周期模型确有放大和传播波动的机制；金融市场的杠杆放大倍数过大可以造成金融以及实体经济波动加剧．最终放大成为危机；但是单纯信贷约束机制的模型无法解释中国经济近期实际出现的信贷与产出背离的阶段性特征。
본문운용주기려파방법분석1991~2010년간중국GDP여신대여액①적계도수거．결과현시신대여액표현위계단，lI혈주기화계단반주기관계，특별시차대위궤후，신대여산출현저배리。기우중국경제모형적이론연구인위，신대주기모형가이교호지의합실제경제。단본문적연구발현．단순신대약속궤제적주기모형불능흔호의합중국실제경제。본문모형예측：신대약속궤제적주기모형학유방대화전파파동적궤제；금융시장적강간방대배수과대가이조성금융이급실체경제파동가극．최종방대성위위궤；단시단순신대약속궤제적모형무법해석중국경제근기실제출현적신대여산출배리적계단성특정。
As one of the new trends in the research of Business Cycle, credit constrains＇ amplifying mechanism is attracting more and more attention. By analyzing China＇s GDP data and credit data from 1991 to 2010, we find that credit data show a strong procyclical relationship with GDP. We then establish a two-section RBC model with credit constrains, by which we study the formation and amplification mechanism of the Financial Crisis and business cycle, and also discuss the related optimal rules for the central bank or the government. Our model has done a good job in explaining the mechanism： financial leverage in modern economy is considered as the offender in the US Financial Crisis, which created the cycles and amplified them into the Crisis when the financial leverage multiplier increased to an excessively high level. According to our model, we also claim that the traditional rule is not good enough in face of long term growth compared with a simple Friedman rule.