CAJ | 학술논문

本文选择中国城镇居民1990-2008年间的省际面板数据,采用了固定效应—工具变量法（FE-IV）对我国城镇预防性储蓄动机强度及其地区差异、时序变化进行了实证检验。结果表明我国城镇居民存在很强的预防性储蓄动机,其中西部城镇居民预防性储蓄动机最强,中部次之,东部最弱;然后滚动回归的结果表明,全国、东部及中西部城镇居民的相对谨慎系数整体上呈现出先下降然后上升的趋势,且东部和中西部城镇居民间相对谨慎系数的差距逐步变小。本文最后在实证结果基础上提出了缓解我国城镇居民储蓄快速增长的若干政策建议。
본문선택중국성진거민1990-2008년간적성제면판수거,채용료고정효응—공구변량법（FE-IV）대아국성진예방성저축동궤강도급기지구차이、시서변화진행료실증검험。결과표명아국성진거민존재흔강적예방성저축동궤,기중서부성진거민예방성저축동궤최강,중부차지,동부최약;연후곤동회귀적결과표명,전국、동부급중서부성진거민적상대근신계수정체상정현출선하강연후상승적추세,차동부화중서부성진거민간상대근신계수적차거축보변소。본문최후재실증결과기출상제출료완해아국성진거민저축쾌속증장적약간정책건의。
Based on the interprovincial panel data of urban inhabitants in China from 1990 to 2008,this paper employs the fixed effects-instrumental variables model to make an empirical study of the regional differences and fluctuations of the strength of precautionary savings motive of urban inhabitants.The results show that there exists strong precautionary savings motive of urban inhabitants in China and urban inhabitants in western regions have the strongest precautionary savings motive,followed by the ones in central and eastern regions.Then the results of rolling regression reveal that the coefficients of relative prudence of nationwide,eastern,central and western urban inhabitants are featured by a trend from downward to upward as a whole,and the gap of the coefficient of relative prudence between urban inhabitants in eastern regions and the ones in central and western regions is gradually shortening.Finally,it puts forward some policy suggestions on slowing down the rapid growth of urban inhabitants＇ savings in China.