经济研究
經濟研究
경제연구
Economic Research Journal
2011年
12期
45~58
,共null页
基金 价值投资 投机 股票回报 盈余预测
基金 價值投資 投機 股票迴報 盈餘預測
기금 개치투자 투궤 고표회보 영여예측
Funds ; Value Investing ; Speculation ; Stock Return ; Earnings Forecasting
基金的一些投机行为引发媒体的负面评价，导致市场对其过度否定。而本文从基金的投资行为与投资效果出发，首次将基金的交易行为区分为新进入、新退出、增减仓三种情况，对基金投资是否追求价值进行了大样本的实证研究。研究结果表明，基金作为知情交易者有能力对未来价值进行预测，基金的投资体现了对于股票未来会计盈余的追求。同时，基金的交易行为发生后股价对未来价值有明显的提前反映，提高了证券市场的定价效率。这表明基金投资追求了价值。本文结论对于客观评价基金的市场作用以及科学发展机构投资者具有一定的理论意义和政策启示。
基金的一些投機行為引髮媒體的負麵評價，導緻市場對其過度否定。而本文從基金的投資行為與投資效果齣髮，首次將基金的交易行為區分為新進入、新退齣、增減倉三種情況，對基金投資是否追求價值進行瞭大樣本的實證研究。研究結果錶明，基金作為知情交易者有能力對未來價值進行預測，基金的投資體現瞭對于股票未來會計盈餘的追求。同時，基金的交易行為髮生後股價對未來價值有明顯的提前反映，提高瞭證券市場的定價效率。這錶明基金投資追求瞭價值。本文結論對于客觀評價基金的市場作用以及科學髮展機構投資者具有一定的理論意義和政策啟示。
기금적일사투궤행위인발매체적부면평개，도치시장대기과도부정。이본문종기금적투자행위여투자효과출발，수차장기금적교역행위구분위신진입、신퇴출、증감창삼충정황，대기금투자시부추구개치진행료대양본적실증연구。연구결과표명，기금작위지정교역자유능력대미래개치진행예측，기금적투자체현료대우고표미래회계영여적추구。동시，기금적교역행위발생후고개대미래개치유명현적제전반영，제고료증권시장적정개효솔。저표명기금투자추구료개치。본문결론대우객관평개기금적시장작용이급과학발전궤구투자자구유일정적이론의의화정책계시。
Funds in China are usually awarded as speculators by the press, which bring them with negative evaluation by capital market. Our paper is the first one applying quarter data from 2002 to 2008 to investigate if funds investments are pursuing value from motivation and consequence aspects, and further categorize fund investment activities into taking initial position, liquidating and adjusting position. The results show that funds as informed traders are capable of forecasting stocks＇ future value. Meanwhile, after the fund investment activities, stock price could evidently reflect the future value in advance, which improves the pricing efficiency of capital market. In general, fund＇s investments pursue value of stocks. This paper thus has some theoretical significance and policy implications in objectively investigating the role of funds and scientifically developing institutional investors in our capital market.
