CAJ | 학술논문

利用从第一历史档案馆获得的清代1742-1795年15省的府级主要粮食品种月度价格数据，本文通过回归和协整分析比较了清代南北方市场整合程度的差异，发现18世纪时南方粮食市场的整合程度显著优于北方市场。在对区域面积、粮食品种进行稳健性检验并分析了天气冲击和政府干预等因素以后，本文发现南北方差异依然显著。而交通条件，特别是水路交通的差异是导致南北方市场整合程度差异的重要因素。由于自然条件限制，北方河流，特别是黄河，无法像南方河流那样促进交通条件改善和市场发育，是导致南北方市场整合差异的重要原因。
이용종제일역사당안관획득적청대1742-1795년15성적부급주요양식품충월도개격수거，본문통과회귀화협정분석비교료청대남북방시장정합정도적차이，발현18세기시남방양식시장적정합정도현저우우북방시장。재대구역면적、양식품충진행은건성검험병분석료천기충격화정부간예등인소이후，본문발현남북방차이의연현저。이교통조건，특별시수로교통적차이시도치남북방시장정합정도차이적중요인소。유우자연조건한제，북방하류，특별시황하，무법상남방하류나양촉진교통조건개선화시장발육，시도치남북방시장정합차이적중요원인。
Using monthly grain price data of 189 prefectures in 15 provinces from 1742 to 1795, we compare market integration of in southern and northern China in the 18 th century. With regression and cointegration analysis, we find that in the eighteen century, the southern markets were more integrated than the northern markets. Robustness checks on region size and grain types, as well as analysis on weather shocks and the role of governments, show that our results are stable. Furthermore, we find that different transportation conditions, especially waterway conditions, contribute to the regional difference of market integration. Constrained by their natural conditions, rivers in the north, especially the Yellow River, were not able to facilitate market development as much as rivers in the south.