CAJ | 학술논문

存款准备金率是金融机构为保证客户提取存款和资金清算需要而存放在中央银行的存款占其存款总额的比例。作为一种货币政策工具，存款准备金率的变动对经济系统平稳运行有着显著影响，而近年来我国存款准备金率的频繁调整引起了国内外的高度重视。文章以此为基础，构建了符合存款准备金率变动实际的统计模型，并对2011下半年大型金融机构存款准备金率的变动趋势进行统计预测，保守估计认为存款准备金率至多出现三次调整机会，时间分别为2011年9月、11月和12月，上调空间预计达到23％。
존관준비금솔시금융궤구위보증객호제취존관화자금청산수요이존방재중앙은행적존관점기존관총액적비례。작위일충화폐정책공구，존관준비금솔적변동대경제계통평은운행유착현저영향，이근년래아국존관준비금솔적빈번조정인기료국내외적고도중시。문장이차위기출，구건료부합존관준비금솔변동실제적통계모형，병대2011하반년대형금융궤구존관준비금솔적변동추세진행통계예측，보수고계인위존관준비금솔지다출현삼차조정궤회，시간분별위2011년9월、11월화12월，상조공간예계체도23％。
Deposit reserve rate refers to a proportion that deposits accounted for it＇s total, this deposits need to deposit in the central bank to ensure customer deposits and clearing of funds by financial institutions. As a tool of monetary policy, the deposit reserve rate＇s adjustment has a significant influence on economic system running smoothly, but in recent years our country frequently adjust the deposit reserve rate attracted high attention both at home and abroad. Base on this, the article constructs a statistical model which in line with the actual of deposit reserve rate changes, and then predicts the deposit reserve rate of large financial institutions in second half of 2011. A conservative estimate shows that the deposit reserve rate have adjustment for chance up to three times respectively in September, November and December in 2011, and the increase extent is expected to reach 23%.