四川大学学报：哲学社会科学版
四川大學學報：哲學社會科學版
사천대학학보：철학사회과학판
Journal of Sichuan University(Social Science Edition)
2011年
6期
82~89
,共null页
中美贸易 不平衡 美元政策 出口管制政策
中美貿易 不平衡 美元政策 齣口管製政策
중미무역 불평형 미원정책 출구관제정책
Sino-US trade; trade imbalance; US monetary policy; Export Controls Policy
从美国货币政策与一般均衡角度探讨中美贸易不平衡问题。首先利用Hechscher-Ohlin的一般均衡模型分析中美贸易格局问题,然后着重考察美国对华出口管制政策和美国货币政策对中美贸易平衡的影响及其作用机制。研究发现：在经济全球化背景下,美国近二十年来的宽松货币政策与长期出口管制政策直接导致了美国对华贸易逆差的持续扩大。利用1994-2009年的年度数据对中美贸易不平衡的理论进行了实证检验,回归分析结果完全支持这种解释。
從美國貨幣政策與一般均衡角度探討中美貿易不平衡問題。首先利用Hechscher-Ohlin的一般均衡模型分析中美貿易格跼問題,然後著重攷察美國對華齣口管製政策和美國貨幣政策對中美貿易平衡的影響及其作用機製。研究髮現：在經濟全毬化揹景下,美國近二十年來的寬鬆貨幣政策與長期齣口管製政策直接導緻瞭美國對華貿易逆差的持續擴大。利用1994-2009年的年度數據對中美貿易不平衡的理論進行瞭實證檢驗,迴歸分析結果完全支持這種解釋。
종미국화폐정책여일반균형각도탐토중미무역불평형문제。수선이용Hechscher-Ohlin적일반균형모형분석중미무역격국문제,연후착중고찰미국대화출구관제정책화미국화폐정책대중미무역평형적영향급기작용궤제。연구발현：재경제전구화배경하,미국근이십년래적관송화폐정책여장기출구관제정책직접도치료미국대화무역역차적지속확대。이용1994-2009년적년도수거대중미무역불평형적이론진행료실증검험,회귀분석결과완전지지저충해석。
By bringing the US monetary policy into focus,this paper provides a new theoretical framework to examine the hotly debated huge and persistent US trade imbalance with China.To begin with,a pure international trade model with free trade and balanced trade is established to fit in the actual trade pattern between China and the United States.Then the impacts of the loose US monetary policy as well as its pervasive export controls policy on China are thoroughly investigated to show how these two policies have interacted with the ongoing globalization to affect the US trade balance with China.And finally,based on the theoretical reasoning from the new perspective,an empirical study is undertaken to test the validity of the new theory by using data covering the period from 1994 to 2009.Just as expected,the regression results turn out to be quite supportive and convincing with surprisingly large explanatory power.
