CAJ | 학술논문

利用1992-2008年河北省、内蒙古自治区、黑龙江省等8个省份面板数据,使用扩展的Nerlovian模型,检验了原料奶供给的反应程度。结果表明：前期产量对原料奶供给的正向作用最大,单产、存栏和WTO规则的影响次之,技术进步的作用较小;饲料价格的反向作用明显,是阻碍产出增长的主要因素;原料奶收购价格缺乏弹性,其短期和长期供给弹性分别为0.109和0.773,均衡状态调整周期约为7.1年。
이용1992-2008년하북성、내몽고자치구、흑룡강성등8개성빈면판수거,사용확전적Nerlovian모형,검험료원료내공급적반응정도。결과표명：전기산량대원료내공급적정향작용최대,단산、존란화WTO규칙적영향차지,기술진보적작용교소;사료개격적반향작용명현,시조애산출증장적주요인소;원료내수구개격결핍탄성,기단기화장기공급탄성분별위0.109화0.773,균형상태조정주기약위7.1년。
Using the extended Nerlovian model,this paper examines the responsiveness of the fresh milk supply based on panel data of eight provinces in China from 1992 to 2008.The results show that yields of early days have the maximum positive impact on fresh milk supply followed by yield per cow,stocks and WTO rules,while the effect of technological progress is smaller.Feed price is the main factor that slows down fresh milk output and obviously has adverse effect.Fresh milk price is inelastic and its short-and long-term supply elasticities are 0.109 and 0.773,respectively,and equilibrium adjustment cycle is approximate 7 years.