金融理论与实践
金融理論與實踐
금융이론여실천
Financial Theory and Practice
2011年
12期
74~78
,共null页
积极财政政策 国债依存度 宏观税率 协整理论
積極財政政策 國債依存度 宏觀稅率 協整理論
적겁재정정책 국채의존도 굉관세솔 협정이론
Active Fiscal Policy; National Debt Dependence Degree; Macroscopic Tax Rate; Co-inte-gration Theory
近年来,国内有些学者认为积极的财政政策应逐渐淡出,然而2008年国际金融危机的发生,使得我国在今后的一段时间内,将继续实施积极的财政政策。本文以改革开放以来为研究时间段,选取国债依存度Y为因变量,国债依存度的滞后一期Y1和宏观税率X1为自变量,通过协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验等方法,有效地揭示了它们之间的相关关系。研究结果表明宏观税率对国债依存度存在着负向作用。本文通过以上结论,以期为政府继续实施积极财政政策,为保持我国经济平稳较快发展提供理论支持。
近年來,國內有些學者認為積極的財政政策應逐漸淡齣,然而2008年國際金融危機的髮生,使得我國在今後的一段時間內,將繼續實施積極的財政政策。本文以改革開放以來為研究時間段,選取國債依存度Y為因變量,國債依存度的滯後一期Y1和宏觀稅率X1為自變量,通過協整理論和格蘭傑因果關繫檢驗等方法,有效地揭示瞭它們之間的相關關繫。研究結果錶明宏觀稅率對國債依存度存在著負嚮作用。本文通過以上結論,以期為政府繼續實施積極財政政策,為保持我國經濟平穩較快髮展提供理論支持。
근년래,국내유사학자인위적겁적재정정책응축점담출,연이2008년국제금융위궤적발생,사득아국재금후적일단시간내,장계속실시적겁적재정정책。본문이개혁개방이래위연구시간단,선취국채의존도Y위인변량,국채의존도적체후일기Y1화굉관세솔X1위자변량,통과협정이론화격란걸인과관계검험등방법,유효지게시료타문지간적상관관계。연구결과표명굉관세솔대국채의존도존재착부향작용。본문통과이상결론,이기위정부계속실시적겁재정정책,위보지아국경제평은교쾌발전제공이론지지。
Some scholars in China believe that the active fiscal policy should be stopped gradually in these years. However, because of the happening of the international financial crises, the central govern- ment will continue to implement the active fiscal policy. In this paper, we choose the period from the time when China began its reform and opening up to nowadays as the studying time section, take the na- tional debt dependence degree Y as the dependent variable, the national debt dependence degree Y1 and the macroscopic tax rate X1 as the independent variable, utilize co-integration theory, Granger causality test and other methods to reveal effectively the complex dependency relationship among the variables above by the regression analysis. The result showed that the macroscopic tax rate played a negative effect on the national debt dependence degree. According to the conclusions above, this paper hopes to provide theoretical support to maintain steady and rapid development with the active fiscal policy.
