CAJ | 학술논문

基于矩阵指数空间规范（MESS）模型，文章以浙江省69个市县为例，采用Bayes方法对服务业的影响因素进行了空间计量分析。研究发现，浙江省各市县的服务业存在显著的空间相依性和空间异质性。地区的服务业从业人员比例、人口密度、工业产值以及地方财政支出占GDP的比例不仅对本地区的服务业增长有显著的促进作用，还对邻近地区的服务业有正向溢出效应；而地区的全社会固定资产投资对服务业的发展则是一个抑制性因素。
기우구진지수공간규범（MESS）모형，문장이절강성69개시현위례，채용Bayes방법대복무업적영향인소진행료공간계량분석。연구발현，절강성각시현적복무업존재현저적공간상의성화공간이질성。지구적복무업종업인원비례、인구밀도、공업산치이급지방재정지출점GDP적비례불부대본지구적복무업증장유현저적촉진작용，환대린근지구적복무업유정향일출효응；이지구적전사회고정자산투자대복무업적발전칙시일개억제성인소。
Based on the MESS model, this paper takes 69 cities and counties in Zhejiang province for example and employs Bayesian method to make a spatial econometric analysis of the influencing factors of service industry. The results show that the service industry in cities and counties in Zhejiang province is characterized by significant spatial dependence and heterogeneity. It finds that the factors such as regional employment in service industry,population density, industry output, the percent of regional fiscal expenditure in GDP,not only have positive effects on the development of local service industry,hut also have positive spillover effects on neighborhood service industry. However, the regional total investment in fixed assets restricts the development of service industry.