CAJ | 학술논문

2011年是近年来通货膨胀最严重的一年,7月我国CPI同比增长6.5%,创历史新高。理论界关于货币超发促使我国长期结构性通货膨胀这一事实已经达成共识,货币的发行对价格传导机制的驱动仍然是学术界重点讨论的关键。通过对四种价格指数分别进行长期协整检验,建立误差修正模型,测量四种价格指数的长期关系及短期影响,同时借用格兰杰因果检验对上下游价格影响方向进行检验,并运用脉冲函数对影响的程度进行测量,最终得到上下游价格波动的总体特征。在研究通货通货膨胀原动力的基础上,对有效防止我国通货膨胀进一步恶化提出合理化建议。
2011년시근년래통화팽창최엄중적일년,7월아국CPI동비증장6.5%,창역사신고。이론계관우화폐초발촉사아국장기결구성통화팽창저일사실이경체성공식,화폐적발행대개격전도궤제적구동잉연시학술계중점토론적관건。통과대사충개격지수분별진행장기협정검험,건립오차수정모형,측량사충개격지수적장기관계급단기영향,동시차용격란걸인과검험대상하유개격영향방향진행검험,병운용맥충함수대영향적정도진행측량,최종득도상하유개격파동적총체특정。재연구통화통화팽창원동력적기출상,대유효방지아국통화팽창진일보악화제출합이화건의。
The year of 2011 is the most serious inflation year for China with its CPI up to 6.5% in July 2011 year-on-year,which was the highest in record.In theoretic circles,it is commonly recognized that monetary oversupply would lead to long-time structural inflation in China.The transmission mechanism driven by monetary supply upon prices is still the key question among academicians.This paper tries to study the time lag effect of monetary supply upon the upstream,middle and downstream prices and reflects the monetary-driven price transmission mechanism in China.Through the respective long-term co-integration test on four price indexes,error correction model（ECM） is set up to measure the long-term relationship and short-term influence of the four price indexes.In the meantime,With Granger causality test to verify the influence direction between upstream and downstream prices,using impulse function to measure the degree of influence,there comes a general feature of fluctuation in upstream and downstream prices.The research on the motive force of inflation will play a positive role in preventing inflation from further deterioration in China.