天津大学学报：社会科学版
天津大學學報：社會科學版
천진대학학보：사회과학판
Journal of Tianjin University(Social Sciences)
2012年
1期
10~13
,共null页
国有粮食企业 Granger因果检验 粮食购销量 粮食安全
國有糧食企業 Granger因果檢驗 糧食購銷量 糧食安全
국유양식기업 Granger인과검험 양식구소량 양식안전
state-owned grain enterprises; Granger causality test; the quantity of purchase and sale; food security
运用格兰杰因果分析法，分别对我国国有粮食企业、主销区国有粮食企业、主产区国有粮食企业收购和销售序列进行分析。结果表明，我国国有粮食企业销售和收购序列存在单向的格兰杰因果关系，主销区国有粮食企业收购和销售序列存在单向的格兰杰因果关系，主产区国有粮食企业收购和销售序列存在双向的格兰杰因果关系，其背后的原因在于所受国有粮库轮换制度和粮食储备规模的影响程度不同。基于格兰杰因果检验结果和成因，论文提出了提升粮食安全水平的政策性建议。
運用格蘭傑因果分析法，分彆對我國國有糧食企業、主銷區國有糧食企業、主產區國有糧食企業收購和銷售序列進行分析。結果錶明，我國國有糧食企業銷售和收購序列存在單嚮的格蘭傑因果關繫，主銷區國有糧食企業收購和銷售序列存在單嚮的格蘭傑因果關繫，主產區國有糧食企業收購和銷售序列存在雙嚮的格蘭傑因果關繫，其揹後的原因在于所受國有糧庫輪換製度和糧食儲備規模的影響程度不同。基于格蘭傑因果檢驗結果和成因，論文提齣瞭提升糧食安全水平的政策性建議。
운용격란걸인과분석법，분별대아국국유양식기업、주소구국유양식기업、주산구국유양식기업수구화소수서렬진행분석。결과표명，아국국유양식기업소수화수구서렬존재단향적격란걸인과관계，주소구국유양식기업수구화소수서렬존재단향적격란걸인과관계，주산구국유양식기업수구화소수서렬존재쌍향적격란걸인과관계，기배후적원인재우소수국유량고륜환제도화양식저비규모적영향정도불동。기우격란걸인과검험결과화성인，논문제출료제승양식안전수평적정책성건의。
This paper has used Granger causality analysis to analyze the purchase and sale＇s quantity of the state-owned grain enterprises, the main sale area＇s enterprises, and the main purchase area＇s enterprises separately. The research shows that unidirectional Granger causality exists between sale and purchase of state-owned grain enterprises, unidirectional Granger causality exists between purchase and sale of the main sale areas, and bidirectional Granger causality exists be- tween purchase and sale of the main purchase areas. The reason is that they are affected by the state-owned grain storage system of rotation and the size of grain reserves to different degree. Based on the Granger causality test, the paper has put forward the policies of improving food safety.
