CAJ | 학술논문

本文利用月度数据，研究进口国名义汇率、名义汇率波动率、实际汇率、实际汇率波动率对福建省出口贸易的影响，通过协整检验来估计各变量间长期均衡关系。研究表明，福建省向美日韩、欧盟等国的出口与该国汇率及其波动无关，而福建省向香港、台湾、新加坡等地的出口则很大程度上受到其汇率水平变化的影响，但汇率波动率的影响却较小。同时，实证检验还发现，对于关注汇率变化的进口国而言，名义汇率和实际汇率水平的变化，对贸易的影响程度基本相同。
본문이용월도수거，연구진구국명의회솔、명의회솔파동솔、실제회솔、실제회솔파동솔대복건성출구무역적영향，통과협정검험래고계각변량간장기균형관계。연구표명，복건성향미일한、구맹등국적출구여해국회솔급기파동무관，이복건성향향항、태만、신가파등지적출구칙흔대정도상수도기회솔수평변화적영향，단회솔파동솔적영향각교소。동시，실증검험환발현，대우관주회솔변화적진구국이언，명의회솔화실제회솔수평적변화，대무역적영향정도기본상동。
Use monthly data and with a co-integration method, this article analyze the impact of import countries＇ nominal exchange rate （NER） , nominal exchange rate volatility （NERV）, real exchange rate （RER） and real exchange rate volatility （RERV） on the export of Fujian Province, we estimated the long-term equilibrium relationship between these variables. The result shows that, for some countries （America, Japan, Korea, EU, etc. ）, exchange rate and exchange rate volatility have no impact on the export of Fujian Province. But for some other countries （or origin）, example, Hongkong, Taiwan and Singapore, exchange rate and have obviously impact on the export of Fujian Province, but exchange rate volatility has little influence. At the meantime, we found if the countries are sensitive to the exchange rate and exchange rate volatility, then there is almost no difference between NER and RER.