CAJ | 학술논문

我国经常参加体育锻炼人口发展系统是一个复杂系统,科学的制定这一系统发展目标是我国大众体育各项工作开展的依据。以系统动力学理论与方法为工具,构建系统模型进行仿真模拟,对体育事业发展＂十二五＂规划中我国经常参加体育锻炼人口发展目标进行定量分析,并与体育事业发展＂十二五＂规划所提出的目标进行定性的对比分析,探讨我国经常参加体育锻炼人口发展系统各要素之间是如何协同作用于系统发展的,从而验证系统发展目标制定是否具有科学性。研究结果表明,体育事业发展＂十二五＂规划提出的经常参加体育锻炼人口发展目标是切合实际的、可行的,而体育事业发展＂十一五＂规划提出的经常参加体育锻炼人口发展目标是不切实际的。通过两次目标对比提示,在制定目标时,要以系统原理为依据,从定性与定量相结合,从系统发展的内在规律出发,充分考虑系统环境,防止所制定的目标带有盲目性,不切实际,造成实际操作中人力、财力、物力的损失。
아국경상삼가체육단련인구발전계통시일개복잡계통,과학적제정저일계통발전목표시아국대음체육각항공작개전적의거。이계통동역학이론여방법위공구,구건계통모형진행방진모의,대체육사업발전＂십이오＂규화중아국경상삼가체육단련인구발전목표진행정량분석,병여체육사업발전＂십이오＂규화소제출적목표진행정성적대비분석,탐토아국경상삼가체육단련인구발전계통각요소지간시여하협동작용우계통발전적,종이험증계통발전목표제정시부구유과학성。연구결과표명,체육사업발전＂십이오＂규화제출적경상삼가체육단련인구발전목표시절합실제적、가행적,이체육사업발전＂십일오＂규화제출적경상삼가체육단련인구발전목표시불절실제적。통과량차목표대비제시,재제정목표시,요이계통원리위의거,종정성여정량상결합,종계통발전적내재규률출발,충분고필계통배경,방지소제정적목표대유맹목성,불절실제,조성실제조작중인력、재력、물력적손실。
Development system of Chinese population regularly participating in exercise is a complex system,and each item of implement about massive physical exercise is based on proposing scientifically goal of this system.Development goal of population regularly participating in exercise prompted by ＂Twelfth Five-Year＂ sports cause is qualitatively analyzed through building systems model and using system dynamics theory,and is compared with goal proposed by the ＂Eleventh Five-Year＂.This paper deeply studies the interaction of various factors among development system of population regularly participating in physical exercise and proves the scientific of goal.The results show that goal about population regularly participating in physical exercise proposed by ＂Eleventh Five-Year＂ sports cause is unrealistic and display a clear form of the Great Leap Forward.Goal proposed by ＂Twelfth Five-Year＂ plan is realistic and feasible.With contrast in the two goals,formulation of objectives must obey the system principle,a combination of qualitative and quantitative,the internal principle of system development,and full consideration of the system environment.To prevent the target with blindness and impractical results in loss in man power,financial resource and material resources.